Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-03-15

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-19

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 791 12 45 10 0 0 0
OW 0 90 5 30 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 5 61 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 40 0 36 44 3 0 0
CDI 0 13 4 41 118 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 23 156 902 5161 29195
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 683 9 41 11 0 0 0
OW 0 94 5 17 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 4 38 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 61 0 33 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 46 5 33 42 3 0 0
VCDI 0 32 4 74 263 919 5161 29195

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 116 1507 1510
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 116 1507 1510

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 597 9344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 607 9371

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 501 5124
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 503 5126

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 5201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 5216

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 29 5 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 13 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 10 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 3 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 5 16 38 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 38 721 4927 451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 26 4 26 1 0 0 0
OW 0 7 2 11 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 6 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 3 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 4 11 36 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 36 723 4926 451

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3201 3979 42 137 1 0 0 0
OW 0 134 25 169 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 13 142 117 0 0 0
ODI 0 55 11 125 172 4 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 53 278 123 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 449 1129 830 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3201 3843 26 83 2 0 0 0
OW 0 185 19 98 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 23 161 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 77 12 126 124 0 0 0
CDI 0 43 11 114 243 65 0 0
VCDI 0 0 1 46 609 1191 830 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5472 3462 22 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 81 14 109 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 9 100 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 120 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 96 148 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 963 772 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5472 3418 22 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 93 10 112 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 10 81 84 2 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 32 100 15 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 22 113 190 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 106 909 764 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8639 3165 31 84 99 10 0 0
OW 0 113 26 63 34 12 0 0
VODI 0 11 10 96 83 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 7 118 54 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 218 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8639 3222 47 134 125 14 0 0
OW 0 56 15 40 66 11 0 0
VODI 0 11 6 52 74 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 41 103 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 62 117 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 35 3 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 106 703 2661 2282
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 6 8 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 705 2659 2282

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 16 21 41
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 193 3279 4996
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 6 20 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 204 3280 5004

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10220 5155 37 181 174 34 0 0
OW 0 236 27 216 67 53 0 0
VODI 0 81 13 317 345 97 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 32 415 221 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 164 359 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 161 766 805 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10220 5328 60 413 333 82 0 0
OW 0 69 9 145 181 74 0 0
VODI 0 39 6 84 231 167 6 0
ODI 0 22 0 48 129 137 27 0
CDI 0 15 2 59 190 185 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 262 885 767 0


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