Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 97 83 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 981 11088 33564
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 45 40 26
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 961 9058 35714
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 74 49 29
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1010 6285 38371
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 115 26 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1257 9348 35091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 125 27 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1247 9347 35091

Date: 2018-03-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 70 44 26 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 192 842 9484 35179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 94 62 53 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 160 824 9457 35176

Date: 2018-03-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 60 4 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 3 69 51 34 86
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 653 8241 36550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 3 83 21 28 49
VCDI 0 0 0 0 145 687 8247 36587

Date: 2018-03-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 9 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 38 63 70 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 1017 7112 37430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 38 55 55
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 1051 7130 37395

Date: 2018-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 16 35 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 35 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 109 60 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 849 8720 35927
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 19 71 76
VCDI 0 0 0 0 92 1014 8729 35852


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