Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69459 15371 180 939 427 79 2 0
OW 51 378 50 518 481 75 0 0
VODI 0 124 29 399 824 228 2 0
ODI 0 63 3 161 743 457 17 0
CDI 0 70 4 97 775 997 177 0
VCDI 0 178 24 214 1360 5138 6541 2465
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69173 15561 184 904 389 86 7 0
OW 51 428 59 557 419 71 0 0
VODI 0 111 31 515 694 130 0 0
ODI 0 28 7 237 751 268 10 0
CDI 0 19 5 70 920 662 77 0
VCDI 0 7 5 164 1018 5743 6190 3549
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69486 15445 172 785 245 40 0 0
OW 56 386 89 831 331 67 0 0
VODI 0 23 18 559 994 162 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 84 1164 394 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 660 1252 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 368 3730 7086 4466
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68124 16584 199 787 400 80 0 0
OW 51 475 72 738 322 111 0 0
VODI 0 86 24 517 870 207 12 0
ODI 0 4 4 129 836 379 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 537 969 217 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 313 3260 6755 5951
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68120 16716 195 846 409 85 0 0
OW 55 340 76 674 316 120 0 0
VODI 0 86 24 507 887 197 11 0
ODI 0 7 4 139 823 360 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 522 952 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 321 3292 6845 5951

Date: 2018-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68239 16343 193 763 469 126 2 0
OW 51 469 63 655 392 117 13 0
VODI 0 80 32 479 904 253 30 0
ODI 0 3 4 149 614 376 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 492 1024 260 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 333 2567 7717 5777
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68239 16449 196 843 485 149 0 0
OW 51 348 63 640 354 124 10 0
VODI 0 93 30 421 939 268 35 0
ODI 0 5 3 149 612 344 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 493 956 228 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 321 2622 7761 5777

Date: 2018-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68966 15507 145 743 364 61 0 0
OW 56 601 91 657 348 70 0 0
VODI 2 65 24 608 894 145 6 0
ODI 0 1 0 30 799 410 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 408 1340 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 87 2583 8140 5663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68966 15696 168 917 588 145 0 0
OW 56 377 66 583 393 150 4 0
VODI 2 91 21 417 716 285 41 0
ODI 0 10 5 105 596 366 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 419 1071 245 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 188 2592 8075 5663

Date: 2018-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68199 16188 172 849 480 112 0 0
OW 52 440 69 549 381 106 3 0
VODI 0 99 24 355 719 215 23 0
ODI 0 10 3 103 572 432 104 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 396 1309 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 168 2550 8392 5779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68200 16166 179 1003 610 243 0 0
OW 51 371 50 401 506 149 21 0
VODI 0 159 29 302 631 304 77 0
ODI 0 34 7 120 475 376 83 0
CDI 0 7 4 52 302 1260 235 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 192 2392 8316 5779

Date: 2018-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68733 16046 172 829 387 107 0 0
OW 52 454 74 496 368 136 2 0
VODI 0 132 34 348 645 245 36 0
ODI 0 22 10 152 551 354 94 0
CDI 0 4 2 67 467 739 298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 318 2991 7765 5957
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68729 15901 180 838 510 255 10 0
OW 56 452 49 438 371 187 29 0
VODI 0 206 37 347 534 273 85 0
ODI 0 68 17 137 516 370 147 0
CDI 0 30 7 98 501 899 272 0
VCDI 0 1 2 47 304 2588 7652 5957


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