Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-03-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69459 15749 184 946 428 79 2 0
OW 51 412 53 533 483 75 0 0
VODI 0 165 37 432 861 248 2 0
ODI 0 89 9 212 801 506 17 0
CDI 0 72 6 120 876 1232 218 45
VCDI 0 178 24 219 1635 8549 23444 58597
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69173 15926 186 907 389 86 7 0
OW 51 453 64 572 419 71 0 0
VODI 0 126 34 545 697 186 0 0
ODI 0 33 10 282 766 310 17 0
CDI 0 19 6 93 1007 794 87 85
VCDI 0 7 5 170 1301 7996 20594 63574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69486 15738 183 836 245 40 0 0
OW 56 403 91 861 331 67 0 0
VODI 0 28 19 588 1012 197 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 90 1195 466 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 744 1415 188 44
VCDI 0 0 0 3 498 5186 19440 67562
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68124 16821 211 862 404 80 0 0
OW 51 506 73 751 326 111 0 0
VODI 0 97 27 542 877 230 12 0
ODI 0 4 4 151 865 435 43 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 595 1069 257 67
VCDI 0 0 0 4 471 4607 22759 65549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68120 16956 208 922 414 85 0 0
OW 55 370 76 685 321 120 0 0
VODI 0 95 27 534 893 220 11 0
ODI 0 7 4 159 848 418 32 3
CDI 0 0 0 62 579 1045 176 57
VCDI 0 0 0 11 483 4644 22852 65556

Date: 2018-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68239 16534 203 820 502 126 2 0
OW 51 500 65 668 403 120 13 0
VODI 0 85 33 493 920 257 30 0
ODI 0 3 4 156 642 381 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 550 1127 353 48
VCDI 0 0 0 0 405 4151 23458 65595
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68239 16641 206 905 519 149 0 0
OW 51 377 65 648 365 127 10 0
VODI 0 99 31 437 954 273 35 0
ODI 0 5 3 154 640 351 56 0
CDI 0 0 0 36 549 1050 331 66
VCDI 0 0 0 0 395 4212 23492 65577

Date: 2018-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68966 15668 153 787 409 69 0 0
OW 56 628 94 675 365 82 0 0
VODI 2 68 24 610 921 161 6 0
ODI 0 1 0 30 817 442 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 435 1467 361 62
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 3793 20943 68796
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68966 15850 176 960 629 159 0 0
OW 56 409 67 594 404 157 4 0
VODI 2 96 23 427 731 294 41 0
ODI 0 10 5 105 617 385 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 452 1134 290 67
VCDI 0 0 0 0 223 3885 20956 68791

Date: 2018-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68199 16300 180 890 535 115 0 0
OW 52 461 70 573 399 112 3 0
VODI 0 126 25 372 738 221 23 0
ODI 0 10 4 105 593 459 105 0
CDI 0 0 1 33 415 1412 345 59
VCDI 0 0 0 3 173 3601 21593 68743
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68200 16298 187 1048 674 250 0 0
OW 51 388 52 425 523 155 21 0
VODI 0 170 30 316 649 314 77 0
ODI 0 34 7 121 494 400 83 0
CDI 0 7 4 52 319 1360 368 66
VCDI 0 0 0 14 194 3441 21520 68736

Date: 2018-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68733 16142 176 884 418 109 0 0
OW 52 466 82 520 381 144 2 0
VODI 0 138 34 375 672 254 36 0
ODI 0 28 11 170 565 366 94 0
CDI 0 4 2 69 528 824 320 20
VCDI 0 0 0 13 435 4758 21665 67558
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68729 16007 188 906 551 264 10 0
OW 56 459 53 466 390 195 29 0
VODI 0 211 38 370 554 285 85 0
ODI 0 70 17 144 529 414 157 4
CDI 0 30 7 98 519 1003 381 41
VCDI 0 1 2 47 456 4294 21455 67533


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