Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70059 15267 167 844 668 131 0 0
OW 63 556 83 391 378 108 2 0
VODI 0 172 36 313 684 288 16 0
ODI 0 40 5 176 482 427 21 0
CDI 0 11 5 95 574 822 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 899 4683 8799 1699
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70213 15241 187 889 796 245 2 0
OW 64 530 57 384 460 199 10 0
VODI 0 185 27 249 598 383 38 0
ODI 0 83 13 165 410 526 57 0
CDI 0 81 11 170 424 791 178 0
VCDI 0 52 11 211 912 4873 8014 1361
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69731 15534 166 817 447 144 2 0
OW 69 553 57 582 387 83 13 0
VODI 0 283 33 412 821 154 44 0
ODI 0 82 17 104 724 492 101 0
CDI 0 37 7 75 966 1386 166 0
VCDI 0 30 7 71 735 4255 7130 2383
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69385 15464 174 945 390 110 22 0
OW 51 361 58 553 433 68 26 0
VODI 0 146 23 387 898 199 50 0
ODI 0 72 9 195 730 401 95 0
CDI 0 79 4 76 788 1206 224 0
VCDI 0 145 18 177 1073 4962 6782 2321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69384 15461 185 962 409 109 24 0
OW 52 354 46 549 433 59 22 0
VODI 0 136 21 368 905 203 43 0
ODI 0 80 9 171 673 424 69 0
CDI 0 70 5 88 815 1075 201 0
VCDI 0 166 20 195 1077 5076 6840 2321

Date: 2018-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69313 15396 180 996 433 92 4 0
OW 51 402 53 474 516 92 7 0
VODI 0 104 29 415 724 216 12 0
ODI 0 43 2 193 705 397 38 0
CDI 0 47 0 65 829 801 133 0
VCDI 0 76 15 194 1261 5125 7267 2400
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69313 15363 192 1035 493 97 5 0
OW 51 411 40 424 483 76 6 0
VODI 0 123 29 410 714 238 14 0
ODI 0 38 3 191 673 422 22 0
CDI 0 46 0 76 816 783 84 0
VCDI 0 87 15 201 1289 5107 7330 2400

Date: 2018-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69196 15493 179 742 224 39 0 0
OW 60 505 86 826 315 32 2 0
VODI 0 80 27 689 1075 114 7 0
ODI 0 3 4 97 1321 424 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 693 1740 356 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 415 3639 6923 3682
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69200 15570 208 974 398 64 3 0
OW 56 347 40 534 402 58 6 0
VODI 0 140 31 494 647 153 12 0
ODI 0 17 12 243 681 281 20 0
CDI 0 7 3 87 918 570 79 0
VCDI 0 0 2 92 997 4862 7210 3682

Date: 2018-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68669 16181 181 753 344 63 0 0
OW 51 401 93 796 319 93 0 0
VODI 0 37 20 528 945 179 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 1046 388 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 578 1144 147 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 334 3493 7983 4191
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68668 15958 178 767 533 155 0 0
OW 52 423 64 511 303 151 1 0
VODI 0 194 38 459 575 230 12 0
ODI 0 37 10 295 610 298 37 0
CDI 0 7 4 113 843 668 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 702 3858 7983 4191

Date: 2018-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68117 16495 191 741 416 144 0 0
OW 51 512 69 693 346 123 1 0
VODI 0 92 28 479 887 221 37 0
ODI 0 1 0 157 739 328 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 579 991 210 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 338 3091 6398 6503
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68117 16188 175 743 593 357 4 0
OW 51 493 61 485 224 149 22 0
VODI 0 288 38 416 621 137 63 0
ODI 0 88 4 253 713 233 80 0
CDI 0 37 8 142 644 716 171 0
VCDI 0 6 2 71 510 3306 6388 6503


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