Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 5 61 30 3 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 55 62 81 0 5
CDI 0 0 0 16 70 154 27 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 1802 11118 32243
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 35 0 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 27 86 127 67 36
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 1325 10624 33438
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 86 15 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 1643 9126 34864
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 24 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 77 32 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 1353 8194 36112
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 22 1 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 73 32 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1359 8195 36112

Date: 2018-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 40 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 81 30 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 1109 9805 34611
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 26 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 27 1 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 62 45 43
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 1133 9789 34610

Date: 2018-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 59 50 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 36 116 14 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 777 6559 38075
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 50 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 20 20 1 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 44 6 15
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 867 6566 38080

Date: 2018-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 57 57
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 660 6121 38839
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 47 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 13 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 699 6165 38888

Date: 2018-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 97 83 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 981 11088 33564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 41 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1078 11130 33552


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