Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-03-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70103 15722 167 850 675 131 0 0
OW 63 609 84 407 391 108 2 0
VODI 0 260 49 402 738 291 16 0
ODI 0 52 13 263 572 515 21 5
CDI 0 11 5 143 716 1018 135 32
VCDI 0 0 0 76 1055 6901 26279 58168
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70242 15668 188 891 803 245 2 0
OW 64 578 59 389 469 199 10 0
VODI 0 212 33 280 622 383 38 0
ODI 0 90 18 214 478 530 57 2
CDI 0 81 12 226 596 961 254 47
VCDI 0 52 11 215 1122 6629 27605 56473
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69731 16032 172 836 460 144 2 0
OW 69 586 63 612 400 83 13 0
VODI 0 292 38 457 852 154 44 0
ODI 0 82 18 134 781 502 105 3
CDI 0 37 7 93 1161 1564 282 44
VCDI 0 30 7 76 903 6588 24664 58927
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69385 15850 180 961 390 110 22 0
OW 51 402 61 583 433 68 26 0
VODI 0 195 28 456 909 199 50 0
ODI 0 85 16 233 796 475 97 0
CDI 0 80 6 103 891 1434 309 20
VCDI 0 145 18 194 1431 8589 25634 56133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69384 15852 191 976 409 109 24 0
OW 52 393 50 579 433 59 22 0
VODI 0 184 27 441 917 203 43 0
ODI 0 91 13 206 735 496 71 2
CDI 0 71 7 113 905 1299 280 20
VCDI 0 166 21 215 1451 8709 25698 56131

Date: 2018-03-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69313 15773 183 1001 433 92 4 0
OW 51 432 56 484 516 92 7 0
VODI 0 135 35 454 768 244 12 0
ODI 0 58 4 232 746 428 38 0
CDI 0 53 2 104 937 899 183 124
VCDI 0 76 15 202 1494 7778 24510 59080
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69313 15738 194 1039 493 97 5 0
OW 51 447 44 433 484 76 6 0
VODI 0 154 35 450 744 265 14 0
ODI 0 51 5 235 718 449 23 2
CDI 0 50 2 111 920 860 151 123
VCDI 0 87 15 209 1535 7786 24555 59079

Date: 2018-03-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69196 15814 195 774 224 39 0 0
OW 60 525 90 856 315 32 2 0
VODI 0 87 27 727 1094 153 7 0
ODI 0 3 4 106 1444 479 42 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 845 1952 396 34
VCDI 0 0 0 20 595 5410 20012 65435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69200 15883 220 997 398 64 3 0
OW 56 373 45 553 402 58 6 0
VODI 0 149 34 531 655 203 12 0
ODI 0 17 12 266 726 302 21 1
CDI 0 7 3 92 1019 666 88 38
VCDI 0 0 2 98 1317 6772 20329 65430

Date: 2018-03-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68669 16442 196 820 346 63 0 0
OW 51 422 94 815 323 93 0 0
VODI 0 44 22 558 955 181 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 116 1077 455 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 634 1242 213 66
VCDI 0 0 0 3 453 4695 20649 67293
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68668 16210 190 826 536 155 0 0
OW 52 450 68 522 304 151 1 0
VODI 0 204 40 489 581 233 12 0
ODI 0 37 10 327 625 345 37 2
CDI 0 7 4 122 890 728 146 10
VCDI 0 0 0 57 852 5117 20693 67347

Date: 2018-03-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68117 16705 202 811 430 144 0 0
OW 51 545 70 705 357 123 1 0
VODI 0 103 30 494 905 232 37 0
ODI 0 1 0 171 762 364 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 639 1115 300 56
VCDI 0 0 0 4 456 4542 24029 64413
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68117 16394 185 808 608 357 4 0
OW 51 524 63 496 230 149 22 0
VODI 0 302 39 437 634 137 63 0
ODI 0 91 5 264 738 240 80 3
CDI 0 37 8 144 680 761 227 112
VCDI 0 6 2 88 659 4876 24053 64354


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