Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-02-22

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 1126 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 209 13 40 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 12 61 45 0 0 0
ODI 0 50 7 45 194 19 0 0
CDI 0 31 9 61 288 363 10 0
VCDI 0 23 8 56 313 1407 7402 25017
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 932 6 25 7 0 0 0
OW 0 180 6 33 43 0 0 0
VODI 0 150 7 23 52 42 0 0
ODI 0 92 5 19 58 93 1 0
CDI 0 83 4 34 166 125 28 0
VCDI 0 89 21 129 517 1529 7383 25017

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 1 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 451 1605 1042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 17 1 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 460 1605 1046

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 837 9135
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 838 9135

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 80 25 14 10
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 158 195 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 158 1643 3328
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 67 92 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 233 1809 3354

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 23 46
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 2267 4881
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 45
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 23 2292 4881

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 527 4797
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 526 4797

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 243 3 9 1 0 0 0
OW 0 17 5 37 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 31 22 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 33 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 57 14 9 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 299 3489 1979
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 216 1 3 1 0 0 0
OW 0 32 2 8 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 5 38 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 29 16 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 43 14 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 85 305 3479 1981

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4188 3741 59 243 66 0 0 0
OW 0 85 20 135 125 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 9 171 210 19 0 0
ODI 0 3 5 57 203 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 197 150 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 108 638 788 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4186 3723 63 277 96 0 0 0
OW 2 67 12 116 116 4 0 0
VODI 0 36 10 95 169 16 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 60 145 74 0 0
CDI 0 9 6 62 194 110 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 189 680 785 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6639 3035 7 20 2 0 0 0
OW 0 219 14 76 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 11 131 138 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 141 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 376 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 607 67 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6639 3057 16 59 10 0 0 0
OW 0 196 10 107 95 2 0 0
VODI 0 37 6 62 123 87 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 70 125 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 281 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 586 67 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8645 3235 34 158 130 40 1 0
OW 0 119 22 66 56 16 0 0
VODI 0 18 9 38 113 26 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 74 46 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 82 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8645 3340 52 192 163 45 1 0
OW 0 31 11 63 105 34 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 9 90 42 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 29 59 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 37 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 421 2905 2473
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 410 2905 2473

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 101 1825 6651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 9 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 91 1816 6655

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8578 4369 46 385 322 176 0 0
OW 4 131 14 131 175 66 0 0
VODI 0 7 6 109 280 126 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 304 283 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 405 611 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 272 2139 1048 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8581 4466 58 495 457 256 3 0
OW 1 32 7 85 217 129 17 0
VODI 0 9 1 45 249 197 50 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 185 206 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 345 445 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 305 2168 1073 0


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