Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-02-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71432 14691 204 874 441 93 0 0
OW 72 222 36 489 300 148 1 0
VODI 0 159 13 326 599 195 14 0
ODI 0 59 13 114 627 264 67 0
CDI 0 25 9 122 528 748 167 0
VCDI 0 7 5 83 338 3379 7450 4786
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71006 14887 179 961 471 101 0 0
OW 67 313 63 411 331 143 7 0
VODI 0 165 16 338 551 179 57 0
ODI 0 41 16 152 551 216 110 0
CDI 0 2 8 123 627 503 170 0
VCDI 0 0 0 76 578 3537 7833 4311
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70432 15081 171 867 558 37 0 0
OW 76 387 74 393 462 69 0 0
VODI 0 88 39 448 717 156 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 138 737 384 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 689 874 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 443 3737 9407 2510
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69887 15340 184 907 575 102 0 0
OW 63 448 75 458 350 96 0 0
VODI 0 133 32 362 720 240 16 0
ODI 0 17 7 150 538 419 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 550 782 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 671 4482 9147 2168
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69887 15438 193 933 591 112 0 0
OW 63 350 67 439 349 82 0 0
VODI 0 129 31 360 690 205 10 0
ODI 0 19 6 130 556 394 24 0
CDI 0 2 1 72 527 816 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 691 4512 9185 2168

Date: 2018-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70387 15064 162 904 662 162 0 0
OW 64 548 76 408 437 103 0 0
VODI 0 201 24 270 689 283 13 0
ODI 0 71 5 130 547 424 16 0
CDI 0 41 4 105 578 780 123 0
VCDI 0 35 7 92 806 4330 8758 1791
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70387 15163 169 933 674 167 0 0
OW 64 451 63 384 428 94 0 0
VODI 0 178 28 277 688 300 8 0
ODI 0 72 5 106 554 403 24 0
CDI 0 50 6 101 560 747 82 0
VCDI 0 46 7 108 815 4371 8796 1791

Date: 2018-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69724 15360 146 806 510 216 1 0
OW 67 749 81 448 379 82 0 0
VODI 0 162 45 499 779 175 13 0
ODI 0 53 11 101 896 522 56 0
CDI 0 31 9 71 857 1543 183 0
VCDI 0 23 8 56 667 4314 7456 2001
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69725 15387 195 1048 732 301 4 0
OW 66 493 46 406 572 169 17 0
VODI 0 220 24 232 675 390 64 0
ODI 0 98 6 84 477 557 62 0
CDI 0 91 8 72 681 970 106 0
VCDI 0 89 21 139 951 4465 7456 2001

Date: 2018-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69470 15456 166 915 442 123 11 0
OW 52 468 58 582 419 63 23 0
VODI 0 220 25 386 910 187 46 0
ODI 0 115 12 109 808 456 87 0
CDI 0 59 9 99 792 1368 195 0
VCDI 0 48 8 113 676 4980 7066 2078
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69470 15222 187 1028 688 192 15 0
OW 52 441 32 411 475 132 35 0
VODI 0 267 22 307 739 235 77 0
ODI 0 156 9 177 639 412 80 0
CDI 0 156 8 75 668 1384 134 0
VCDI 0 124 20 206 838 4822 7087 2078

Date: 2018-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69459 15371 180 939 427 79 2 0
OW 51 378 50 518 481 75 0 0
VODI 0 124 29 399 824 228 2 0
ODI 0 63 3 161 743 457 17 0
CDI 0 70 4 97 775 997 177 0
VCDI 0 178 24 214 1360 5138 6541 2465
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69459 15280 177 1045 710 132 2 0
OW 51 321 50 446 459 163 0 0
VODI 0 181 18 307 709 288 11 0
ODI 0 85 11 112 568 406 42 0
CDI 0 52 6 112 673 904 156 0
VCDI 0 265 28 306 1491 5081 6528 2465


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