Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-02-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 43 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 29 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 37 113 0 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 1703 9372 34364
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 15 71 23 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 21 54 27 0 3
CDI 0 8 3 26 75 72 3 15
VCDI 0 0 0 26 139 2080 10840 32296
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 41 5 18 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 7 79 110 3 0 0
ODI 0 22 0 23 103 54 1 1
CDI 0 8 2 23 103 180 19 23
VCDI 0 0 0 11 123 2345 10366 32081
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 52 6 24 32 13 0 0
VODI 0 72 6 47 68 36 0 0
ODI 0 8 4 28 102 39 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 24 62 112 16 39
VCDI 0 0 0 7 80 1781 10262 32945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 39 4 15 11 0 0 0
OW 0 63 4 17 51 35 0 0
VODI 0 25 5 42 64 32 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 29 67 64 0 2
CDI 0 0 0 24 63 89 35 29
VCDI 0 0 0 3 88 1761 10243 32954

Date: 2018-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 7 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 55 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 78 150 13 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 1335 10625 33397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 48 62 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 52 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 52 123 31 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 1259 10607 33399

Date: 2018-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 84 25 14 10
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 220 204 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 1375 9112 34737
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 22 16 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 85 150 62 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1454 9268 34771

Date: 2018-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 81 12 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1749 8542 35459
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 3
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 93 8 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1730 8546 35465

Date: 2018-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 25 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 99 27 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1318 7820 36450
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 14 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 36 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 69 39 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1362 7808 36432


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