Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-02-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71795 14529 165 738 337 0 0 0
OW 63 480 53 399 312 35 0 0
VODI 0 223 35 340 535 166 0 0
ODI 0 83 13 161 473 218 5 0
CDI 0 46 8 138 646 624 74 0
VCDI 0 91 14 153 1144 3574 7342 4088
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72386 13723 148 695 318 29 0 0
OW 63 513 60 412 254 69 0 0
VODI 0 282 31 371 410 148 0 0
ODI 0 102 9 217 510 243 2 0
CDI 0 57 9 149 853 560 86 1
VCDI 0 114 18 212 1543 2848 5836 5819
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71522 14780 183 854 358 15 0 0
OW 66 273 50 474 364 47 0 0
VODI 0 126 23 427 558 224 0 0
ODI 0 59 10 165 668 317 6 0
CDI 0 65 16 106 747 781 69 0
VCDI 0 1 3 70 617 2969 6359 5728
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71511 14752 202 793 390 34 0 0
OW 71 203 39 549 293 131 0 0
VODI 0 131 13 384 575 171 2 0
ODI 0 37 16 131 681 260 21 0
CDI 0 47 11 105 852 776 99 0
VCDI 0 3 2 77 645 2782 7284 5027
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71512 14776 205 869 430 46 0 0
OW 70 175 37 515 319 129 0 0
VODI 0 126 12 340 564 156 1 0
ODI 0 44 16 124 592 250 18 0
CDI 0 43 6 107 844 675 84 0
VCDI 0 9 7 84 687 2898 7303 5027

Date: 2018-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71080 14843 205 939 488 104 0 0
OW 73 274 44 430 337 154 7 0
VODI 0 163 20 291 625 187 58 0
ODI 0 54 16 145 525 252 112 0
CDI 0 7 7 141 554 528 183 0
VCDI 0 0 0 81 431 3496 7529 4717
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71081 14849 208 983 496 134 1 0
OW 72 276 44 408 391 107 6 0
VODI 0 146 18 302 602 185 33 0
ODI 0 57 13 121 518 279 105 0
CDI 0 13 9 123 494 508 184 0
VCDI 0 0 0 90 459 3508 7560 4717

Date: 2018-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70591 15030 169 814 397 26 0 0
OW 71 407 95 508 390 60 0 0
VODI 0 102 29 466 730 136 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 105 868 393 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 659 1210 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 240 3404 8157 3847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70599 15080 210 1072 586 95 0 0
OW 63 273 41 379 422 110 0 0
VODI 0 138 25 222 690 215 0 0
ODI 0 46 17 115 568 362 34 0
CDI 0 2 4 82 510 794 113 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 508 3653 8186 3847

Date: 2018-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69999 15262 171 880 611 79 0 0
OW 70 403 78 415 427 111 0 0
VODI 1 103 27 329 710 248 8 0
ODI 0 11 4 104 535 509 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 466 934 151 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 443 3694 8762 3438
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70006 15239 205 1051 857 268 0 0
OW 64 343 34 297 463 149 14 0
VODI 0 163 32 180 639 293 62 0
ODI 0 28 8 148 368 443 73 0
CDI 0 6 1 90 406 754 208 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 459 3668 8628 3438

Date: 2018-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70059 15267 167 844 668 131 0 0
OW 63 556 83 391 378 108 2 0
VODI 0 172 36 313 684 288 16 0
ODI 0 40 5 176 482 427 21 0
CDI 0 11 5 95 574 822 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 899 4683 8799 1699
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70059 15170 170 923 875 275 0 0
OW 63 597 64 325 382 184 0 0
VODI 0 210 41 275 537 354 21 0
ODI 0 53 15 163 420 405 31 0
CDI 0 16 6 97 506 673 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 106 965 4568 8805 1699


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