Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-02-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71843 15169 170 749 337 0 0 0
OW 63 605 53 418 312 35 0 0
VODI 0 353 38 366 558 177 0 0
ODI 0 145 24 286 561 271 6 0
CDI 0 85 17 254 914 777 128 35
VCDI 0 108 18 251 1824 6904 24304 58890
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72438 14337 152 701 318 29 0 0
OW 63 644 62 423 254 69 0 0
VODI 0 422 33 423 452 174 0 0
ODI 0 196 20 350 619 282 4 0
CDI 0 104 16 260 1109 692 108 28
VCDI 0 132 28 265 2089 5515 20808 63429
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71551 15655 190 890 359 15 0 0
OW 66 358 62 509 370 47 0 0
VODI 0 152 33 541 675 237 0 0
ODI 0 61 16 262 1037 379 6 1
CDI 0 65 16 137 1058 1102 100 37
VCDI 0 1 3 71 827 5621 21110 63428
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71529 15443 212 809 390 34 0 0
OW 71 312 43 579 294 131 0 0
VODI 0 168 30 482 678 199 2 0
ODI 0 38 16 201 1082 307 21 0
CDI 0 47 11 122 1113 1112 120 10
VCDI 0 3 2 77 849 5470 24407 60634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71530 15467 215 884 430 46 0 0
OW 70 277 40 545 320 129 0 0
VODI 0 170 30 416 681 186 1 0
ODI 0 45 16 212 916 284 18 0
CDI 0 43 6 127 1174 972 103 7
VCDI 0 9 7 86 885 5636 24428 60637

Date: 2018-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71091 15448 213 948 488 104 0 0
OW 73 357 47 452 362 154 7 0
VODI 0 224 32 346 743 197 58 0
ODI 0 64 19 224 702 294 112 2
CDI 0 7 7 242 820 751 209 23
VCDI 0 0 0 100 776 5731 23475 62146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71092 15468 213 991 496 134 1 0
OW 72 349 50 429 417 107 6 0
VODI 0 203 29 357 720 196 33 0
ODI 0 67 17 195 668 332 105 3
CDI 0 13 9 224 763 734 206 14
VCDI 0 0 0 116 827 5728 23510 62154

Date: 2018-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70592 15649 175 836 399 26 0 0
OW 71 460 104 548 394 60 0 0
VODI 0 153 42 598 862 137 0 0
ODI 0 13 7 173 1069 456 19 2
CDI 0 1 0 37 844 1878 247 43
VCDI 0 0 0 2 388 6428 25857 58478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70600 15613 214 1081 587 95 0 0
OW 63 340 42 408 496 110 0 0
VODI 0 200 36 277 760 267 0 0
ODI 0 83 26 180 633 413 34 3
CDI 0 35 9 160 623 1069 149 35
VCDI 0 5 1 88 857 7031 25940 58485

Date: 2018-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70042 15765 172 916 612 79 0 0
OW 70 521 87 461 469 123 0 0
VODI 1 184 40 418 855 279 8 0
ODI 0 22 10 157 674 570 64 1
CDI 0 0 0 98 594 1176 215 75
VCDI 0 0 0 8 603 6392 26251 59036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70049 15693 210 1086 865 268 0 0
OW 64 424 37 325 529 177 14 0
VODI 0 266 36 231 726 357 62 0
ODI 0 83 17 196 471 489 73 3
CDI 0 26 9 162 499 949 241 32
VCDI 0 0 0 58 717 6379 26148 59077

Date: 2018-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70103 15722 167 850 675 131 0 0
OW 63 609 84 407 391 108 2 0
VODI 0 260 49 402 738 291 16 0
ODI 0 52 13 263 572 515 21 5
CDI 0 11 5 143 716 1018 135 32
VCDI 0 0 0 76 1055 6901 26279 58168
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70103 15607 170 933 882 275 0 0
OW 63 652 66 331 392 184 0 0
VODI 0 274 49 333 580 354 21 0
ODI 0 103 26 248 522 505 37 4
CDI 0 18 7 185 639 861 148 43
VCDI 0 0 0 111 1132 6785 26247 58158


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