Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-02-08

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 763 5 28 2 0 0 0
OW 0 69 4 34 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 3 34 48 4 0 0
ODI 0 70 5 44 85 15 0 0
CDI 0 61 16 79 145 110 10 0
VCDI 0 4 2 52 328 865 5799 28152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 645 4 33 4 0 0 0
OW 0 80 4 30 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 2 20 44 7 0 0
ODI 0 56 1 13 39 14 0 0
CDI 0 37 6 43 42 33 0 0
VCDI 0 117 18 132 474 940 5809 28152

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 1293 1725
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 105 1293 1733

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 9973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 9968

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 32 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 50 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 357 1695 3398
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 44 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 37 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 350 1696 3398

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7246

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 132 1240 3953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 133 1240 3953

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 606 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 74 7 24 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 13 203 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 101 279 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 30 254 128 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 113 751 3198 447
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 411 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 1 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 2 50 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 78 7 144 102 0 0 0
CDI 0 28 14 113 223 33 0 0
VCDI 0 11 5 55 364 848 3199 447

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5019 3938 48 206 4 0 0 0
OW 0 100 25 219 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 10 199 192 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 38 259 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 224 158 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 49 255 249 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5019 3736 42 169 1 0 0 0
OW 0 185 24 156 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 102 8 189 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 43 6 65 136 13 0 0
CDI 0 22 4 72 245 80 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 315 351 249 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6297 3019 9 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 11 66 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 2 93 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 50 66 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 100 45 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 92 353 1289 48
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6297 2899 5 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 132 6 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 10 66 18 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 79 43 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 44 83 26 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 149 372 1287 48

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8720 3173 32 131 20 0 0 0
OW 0 38 21 82 52 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 45 111 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 65 53 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 70 169 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 22 47 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8720 3134 38 148 46 1 0 0
OW 0 57 11 43 61 7 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 46 56 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 54 39 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 84 129 85 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 22 52 41 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 52 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 425 2219 3069
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 53 425 2219 3069

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 376 1716 6481
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 360 1716 6481

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9667 4258 90 461 228 25 0 0
OW 2 3 3 119 236 55 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 48 341 208 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 213 343 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 117 620 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 2020 1128 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9669 4261 93 502 398 113 0 0
OW 0 0 0 82 190 91 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 41 232 152 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 178 183 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 134 562 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2170 1121 0


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