Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-02-08

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71614 15470 203 843 411 33 0 0
OW 63 317 55 399 425 77 2 0
VODI 0 85 26 320 793 210 6 0
ODI 0 16 3 123 667 408 18 2
CDI 0 0 1 61 526 893 163 32
VCDI 0 0 0 14 416 3922 20741 67690
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71276 15503 193 923 458 27 0 0
OW 64 476 55 435 355 71 0 0
VODI 0 165 39 347 698 147 23 0
ODI 0 54 11 159 620 279 53 0
CDI 0 14 12 115 575 977 127 59
VCDI 0 2 2 81 732 6136 20814 64971
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71944 15620 173 716 207 1 0 0
OW 63 515 57 545 299 11 0 0
VODI 0 288 33 453 596 76 6 0
ODI 0 121 17 211 690 134 16 0
CDI 0 62 19 197 777 1072 141 28
VCDI 0 17 12 203 1533 8105 27309 54781
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72084 15032 171 779 306 7 0 0
OW 63 585 47 438 336 61 0 0
VODI 0 309 50 345 577 138 0 0
ODI 0 127 17 283 573 298 0 0
CDI 0 78 12 233 836 1085 99 32
VCDI 0 107 19 188 1501 7208 23655 59369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72084 15093 171 835 335 29 0 0
OW 63 546 45 369 302 60 0 0
VODI 0 299 51 352 543 116 0 0
ODI 0 121 20 281 567 242 1 0
CDI 0 66 12 258 812 989 84 23
VCDI 0 113 17 171 1570 7361 23669 59378

Date: 2018-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71654 15112 161 787 339 1 0 0
OW 63 591 59 442 288 36 0 0
VODI 0 383 32 406 537 117 0 0
ODI 0 154 25 315 686 241 0 2
CDI 0 86 11 223 1193 601 46 24
VCDI 0 106 24 217 1834 6260 24945 59047
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71654 15136 163 829 409 15 0 0
OW 63 616 49 374 246 40 0 0
VODI 0 357 43 420 493 100 0 0
ODI 0 143 24 315 695 207 0 0
CDI 0 79 12 243 1102 512 37 14
VCDI 0 101 21 209 1932 6382 24954 59059

Date: 2018-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71470 15769 186 849 254 25 0 0
OW 63 354 71 558 354 56 0 0
VODI 0 140 29 622 811 243 0 0
ODI 0 80 14 247 997 467 1 0
CDI 0 61 17 138 979 1305 118 11
VCDI 0 4 2 58 661 5661 19881 64492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71470 15098 182 858 449 114 0 0
OW 63 544 46 365 290 98 0 0
VODI 0 369 27 413 468 221 0 0
ODI 0 182 16 328 572 278 18 0
CDI 0 87 25 280 829 940 104 8
VCDI 0 128 23 228 1448 6106 19878 64495

Date: 2018-02-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71616 15486 189 879 406 34 0 0
OW 69 356 56 483 346 102 0 0
VODI 0 145 35 423 664 290 7 0
ODI 0 47 13 172 1038 311 23 0
CDI 0 62 18 124 1111 1095 142 10
VCDI 0 0 0 64 912 4995 26405 58920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71621 14922 154 709 487 171 3 0
OW 64 566 54 367 222 115 7 0
VODI 0 344 38 397 440 207 21 0
ODI 0 127 31 278 644 260 35 1
CDI 0 64 13 196 1186 646 111 32
VCDI 0 73 21 198 1498 5428 26400 58897

Date: 2018-02-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71448 15333 210 890 441 93 0 0
OW 72 312 39 513 301 148 1 0
VODI 0 228 28 376 683 233 14 0
ODI 0 65 17 215 918 316 67 0
CDI 0 25 9 168 832 1013 193 18
VCDI 0 7 5 83 592 5735 22565 62842
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71455 14693 182 847 600 200 0 0
OW 65 458 38 382 296 122 8 0
VODI 0 404 24 277 515 254 23 0
ODI 0 200 26 220 522 321 49 0
CDI 0 126 18 247 812 839 152 14
VCDI 0 89 20 272 1022 5802 22608 62846


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