Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-02-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74327 14772 142 611 186 8 0 0
OW 71 527 77 597 230 14 0 0
VODI 0 257 29 550 598 102 1 0
ODI 0 131 19 227 806 168 53 0
CDI 0 56 17 142 736 620 79 41
VCDI 0 21 12 178 898 3874 15687 70184
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72781 15286 177 761 360 40 4 0
OW 66 499 78 465 395 55 0 0
VODI 0 257 35 390 576 185 9 0
ODI 0 121 14 201 523 386 87 3
CDI 0 86 14 84 621 820 220 45
VCDI 0 75 14 216 822 3904 21982 64391
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72269 15424 218 887 326 26 0 0
OW 60 285 66 569 384 21 0 0
VODI 0 135 31 418 691 91 0 0
ODI 0 38 7 162 749 306 4 3
CDI 0 12 6 68 577 1232 214 59
VCDI 0 0 0 35 505 3417 19855 67898
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71945 15302 220 885 376 15 0 0
OW 62 301 50 498 381 44 0 0
VODI 0 78 31 354 810 168 0 0
ODI 0 11 5 118 692 358 43 3
CDI 0 0 3 52 504 743 171 42
VCDI 0 0 0 11 493 3930 19656 68693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71945 15324 222 941 407 22 0 0
OW 62 272 53 453 401 46 0 0
VODI 0 84 27 356 794 174 1 0
ODI 0 12 3 111 673 360 21 3
CDI 0 0 4 48 507 731 168 41
VCDI 0 0 0 9 474 3925 19680 68694

Date: 2018-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71672 15460 187 869 363 46 0 0
OW 64 413 70 454 326 100 0 0
VODI 0 140 27 438 576 183 16 0
ODI 0 24 12 193 637 345 56 0
CDI 0 8 2 109 544 689 156 17
VCDI 0 0 0 43 701 4242 21637 66229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71671 15519 191 925 408 61 0 0
OW 65 358 66 413 331 91 0 0
VODI 0 137 29 407 581 181 10 0
ODI 0 24 11 202 613 322 47 1
CDI 0 7 1 115 514 718 149 17
VCDI 0 0 0 44 700 4232 21659 66228

Date: 2018-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71395 15762 189 780 296 1 0 0
OW 63 482 68 561 353 28 0 0
VODI 0 187 35 477 819 97 5 0
ODI 0 25 23 194 751 256 13 0
CDI 0 1 2 118 647 1293 216 25
VCDI 0 0 0 17 674 6875 24249 60071
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71393 15604 188 878 515 34 0 0
OW 65 464 48 382 388 76 7 0
VODI 0 260 36 305 555 175 17 0
ODI 0 95 23 262 458 310 32 1
CDI 0 33 20 187 604 1054 76 40
VCDI 0 1 2 133 1020 6901 24351 60055

Date: 2018-02-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72098 15187 176 776 263 0 0 0
OW 62 527 58 460 400 19 0 0
VODI 0 292 34 381 582 73 0 0
ODI 0 137 19 203 720 185 14 3
CDI 0 83 14 157 977 1002 83 84
VCDI 0 87 17 162 1592 8651 25426 56044
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72097 14846 176 843 448 8 0 0
OW 63 631 48 373 335 32 0 0
VODI 0 315 31 343 604 129 0 0
ODI 0 190 16 178 603 279 5 3
CDI 0 120 11 145 768 1082 90 34
VCDI 0 211 36 257 1776 8400 25428 56094

Date: 2018-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71843 15169 170 749 337 0 0 0
OW 63 605 53 418 312 35 0 0
VODI 0 353 38 366 558 177 0 0
ODI 0 145 24 286 561 271 6 0
CDI 0 85 17 254 914 777 128 35
VCDI 0 108 18 251 1824 6904 24304 58890
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71843 14597 171 815 614 63 0 0
OW 63 824 49 359 355 106 0 0
VODI 0 439 28 323 525 238 5 0
ODI 0 203 13 179 458 323 41 2
CDI 0 123 21 233 630 1013 121 43
VCDI 0 279 38 415 1924 6421 24271 58880


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