Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-01-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76050 12984 124 537 160 8 0 0
OW 83 434 40 311 298 39 0 0
VODI 0 229 25 238 452 95 23 0
ODI 0 101 18 130 444 246 76 0
CDI 0 44 18 148 439 492 96 0
VCDI 0 10 10 156 796 2626 5922 5198
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75801 13177 126 552 160 6 0 0
OW 74 515 47 295 259 26 0 0
VODI 0 281 38 344 401 94 4 0
ODI 0 110 11 177 480 172 118 0
CDI 0 63 21 137 637 252 92 0
VCDI 0 12 9 163 1061 2369 5495 5521
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75315 13902 135 500 172 4 0 0
OW 67 436 68 433 176 10 0 0
VODI 0 181 35 503 464 48 0 0
ODI 0 22 15 186 648 126 17 0
CDI 0 7 5 103 782 400 216 0
VCDI 0 8 3 38 641 2360 5517 5557
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74583 14192 136 558 230 31 0 0
OW 71 445 66 527 210 35 0 0
VODI 0 122 39 590 482 56 29 0
ODI 0 14 12 214 660 138 46 0
CDI 0 3 2 68 601 459 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 436 2403 5610 5894
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74578 14191 138 595 237 28 0 0
OW 76 452 64 479 207 33 0 0
VODI 0 110 38 592 490 63 25 0
ODI 0 20 13 207 616 137 48 0
CDI 0 3 2 81 602 430 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 467 2431 5614 5894

Date: 2018-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73613 14208 167 692 284 14 0 0
OW 66 436 73 487 313 40 0 0
VODI 0 99 28 441 540 175 6 0
ODI 0 29 7 174 521 264 70 0
CDI 0 7 3 83 722 549 101 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 589 2585 6036 5644
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73613 14216 180 727 301 23 0 0
OW 66 407 61 479 317 24 0 0
VODI 0 123 27 434 565 163 3 0
ODI 0 25 7 176 537 256 45 0
CDI 0 7 2 62 728 601 138 0
VCDI 0 1 1 33 521 2560 6027 5644

Date: 2018-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72395 14924 191 734 238 44 3 0
OW 63 306 69 585 355 26 2 0
VODI 0 68 21 406 718 79 2 0
ODI 0 5 1 84 713 292 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 405 1132 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 209 1792 6513 6425
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72395 14723 205 811 450 90 2 0
OW 63 394 41 417 319 62 12 0
VODI 0 136 29 378 546 154 24 0
ODI 0 31 4 138 503 345 84 0
CDI 0 16 2 53 397 727 79 0
VCDI 0 3 1 46 423 1987 6585 6425

Date: 2018-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72091 14783 207 736 411 31 0 0
OW 62 225 62 488 388 41 1 0
VODI 0 49 21 330 654 184 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 517 341 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 372 720 188 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 268 2092 7005 6694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72091 14597 190 738 592 113 0 0
OW 62 328 63 361 333 133 8 0
VODI 0 105 33 371 539 209 32 0
ODI 0 24 3 123 485 337 121 0
CDI 0 3 1 57 366 562 122 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 295 2055 6945 6694

Date: 2018-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71586 14974 196 814 403 33 0 0
OW 63 290 50 372 409 77 2 0
VODI 0 66 23 286 736 210 6 0
ODI 0 13 1 100 555 400 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 387 745 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 304 2000 8831 4965
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71586 14676 177 801 671 69 0 0
OW 63 445 54 292 382 165 0 0
VODI 0 159 35 285 582 333 7 0
ODI 0 46 2 153 437 401 71 0
CDI 0 17 2 73 396 614 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 326 1883 8793 4965


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