Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-01-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76218 13467 127 540 160 8 0 0
OW 83 511 44 338 298 39 0 0
VODI 0 319 28 315 471 95 23 0
ODI 0 162 19 178 495 250 76 0
CDI 0 97 21 153 580 588 132 43
VCDI 0 78 21 248 1033 5442 26427 57921
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75983 13654 129 553 160 6 0 0
OW 74 614 53 309 259 26 0 0
VODI 0 389 40 396 402 94 4 0
ODI 0 177 17 222 545 172 120 1
CDI 0 127 22 187 720 296 105 44
VCDI 0 108 18 273 1418 4595 19309 65427
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75511 14457 142 520 172 4 0 0
OW 67 548 70 462 178 10 0 0
VODI 0 327 35 553 487 48 0 0
ODI 0 76 23 212 741 127 17 0
CDI 0 37 11 187 928 533 284 21
VCDI 0 8 3 70 966 4110 17583 67520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74694 14756 141 587 235 31 0 0
OW 71 528 68 541 218 35 0 0
VODI 0 256 43 629 504 57 29 0
ODI 0 80 26 279 714 141 46 0
CDI 0 9 7 156 747 511 132 23
VCDI 0 0 1 71 700 3841 14466 71675
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74689 14750 143 623 243 28 0 0
OW 76 533 66 495 212 33 0 0
VODI 0 232 41 627 513 64 25 0
ODI 0 100 27 260 663 140 48 0
CDI 0 14 8 171 726 467 129 25
VCDI 0 0 1 87 761 3884 14471 71673

Date: 2018-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73711 14770 172 706 284 14 0 0
OW 66 558 81 510 315 40 0 0
VODI 0 248 28 473 557 175 6 0
ODI 0 151 14 221 564 278 74 2
CDI 0 108 10 134 826 617 114 37
VCDI 0 84 18 242 982 3991 19361 66506
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73711 14745 184 741 301 23 0 0
OW 66 534 70 501 319 24 0 0
VODI 0 278 27 469 586 163 3 0
ODI 0 143 15 221 573 267 49 2
CDI 0 110 7 111 797 661 154 26
VCDI 0 109 20 243 952 3977 19349 66517

Date: 2018-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72398 15631 200 758 241 44 3 0
OW 63 383 81 632 358 26 2 0
VODI 0 160 34 481 753 79 2 0
ODI 0 57 9 151 876 337 17 1
CDI 0 20 2 105 556 1529 392 58
VCDI 0 5 1 17 339 2868 21547 65832
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72398 15263 207 820 455 90 2 0
OW 63 477 45 437 321 62 12 0
VODI 0 234 42 411 556 156 24 0
ODI 0 121 10 179 549 355 91 8
CDI 0 84 9 99 461 900 216 37
VCDI 0 77 14 198 781 3320 21618 65846

Date: 2018-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72105 15388 218 763 413 31 0 0
OW 62 259 66 534 395 41 1 0
VODI 0 104 33 408 677 184 3 0
ODI 0 37 8 166 595 354 31 3
CDI 0 14 5 55 486 862 261 30
VCDI 0 0 0 37 443 3566 20051 68359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72105 15058 193 747 595 113 0 0
OW 62 402 67 377 337 133 8 0
VODI 0 193 46 429 549 209 32 1
ODI 0 79 9 191 515 351 121 12
CDI 0 47 6 115 426 627 132 57
VCDI 0 23 9 104 587 3605 20054 68322

Date: 2018-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71614 15470 203 843 411 33 0 0
OW 63 317 55 399 425 77 2 0
VODI 0 85 26 320 793 210 6 0
ODI 0 16 3 123 667 408 18 2
CDI 0 0 1 61 526 893 163 32
VCDI 0 0 0 14 416 3922 20741 67690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71614 15093 181 808 674 69 0 0
OW 63 497 57 307 396 165 0 0
VODI 0 202 39 322 616 333 7 0
ODI 0 72 7 183 511 409 71 7
CDI 0 24 4 101 523 694 167 89
VCDI 0 0 0 39 518 3873 20685 67628


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