Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-01-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75501 13895 199 716 161 2 0 0
OW 71 161 45 403 381 14 0 0
VODI 0 44 13 261 470 147 0 0
ODI 0 8 9 103 386 169 11 0
CDI 0 0 1 54 406 412 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 438 3142 7902 3562
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75832 13269 161 595 186 27 0 0
OW 71 308 44 374 300 54 3 0
VODI 0 83 25 253 480 97 8 0
ODI 0 21 5 89 484 144 1 0
CDI 0 6 8 66 470 334 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 59 638 3608 8262 2729
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76084 12847 173 758 240 0 0 0
OW 71 214 17 323 360 32 0 0
VODI 0 90 13 174 630 83 7 0
ODI 0 32 8 84 559 180 21 0
CDI 0 15 7 73 489 449 54 0
VCDI 0 6 6 81 791 3380 7547 3202
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75830 13017 143 692 179 10 0 0
OW 77 321 25 327 345 48 0 0
VODI 0 198 18 165 518 78 17 0
ODI 0 64 16 132 580 146 74 0
CDI 0 34 12 144 548 352 82 0
VCDI 0 13 8 122 781 2988 7375 3621
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75815 12983 144 753 257 21 0 0
OW 92 342 24 277 299 45 2 0
VODI 0 194 18 158 481 73 17 0
ODI 0 70 14 116 555 125 79 0
CDI 0 34 9 137 546 350 70 0
VCDI 0 24 13 141 813 3008 7380 3621

Date: 2018-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76516 12476 219 518 135 0 0 0
OW 78 561 39 280 221 24 0 0
VODI 0 328 25 275 357 87 5 0
ODI 0 154 9 155 473 159 97 0
CDI 0 69 29 154 571 284 91 0
VCDI 0 11 11 202 1043 2533 5420 5491
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76507 12507 213 554 176 5 0 0
OW 86 517 48 256 194 29 0 0
VODI 1 319 18 252 347 80 6 0
ODI 0 141 13 147 398 129 80 0
CDI 0 85 24 150 550 301 121 0
VCDI 0 30 16 225 1135 2543 5406 5491

Date: 2018-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75670 13422 116 486 139 4 0 0
OW 66 610 75 375 165 7 0 0
VODI 0 257 63 544 449 45 0 0
ODI 0 34 14 189 721 126 15 0
CDI 0 9 9 123 751 439 229 0
VCDI 0 2 1 25 654 2126 5551 5589
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75664 13303 125 534 214 8 0 0
OW 72 513 54 315 217 45 0 0
VODI 0 278 50 369 333 68 16 0
ODI 0 117 12 177 515 99 82 0
CDI 0 81 17 132 575 255 125 0
VCDI 0 42 20 215 1025 2272 5572 5589

Date: 2018-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75116 13907 134 447 219 37 1 0
OW 68 530 70 412 220 24 5 0
VODI 0 151 38 473 481 72 27 0
ODI 0 15 17 187 587 140 39 0
CDI 0 0 1 77 588 629 124 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 370 2304 6283 5265
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75116 13592 121 494 372 41 0 0
OW 68 512 63 283 188 75 6 0
VODI 0 303 34 307 398 124 28 0
ODI 0 98 13 212 400 219 122 0
CDI 0 70 16 143 442 441 55 0
VCDI 0 28 13 199 665 2306 6268 5265

Date: 2018-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74213 14223 138 584 186 8 0 0
OW 71 436 73 568 228 14 0 0
VODI 0 112 23 530 579 102 1 0
ODI 0 21 9 191 742 165 50 0
CDI 0 5 4 49 630 571 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 40 477 2411 5767 5815
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74213 14123 148 737 293 13 0 0
OW 71 401 45 453 253 35 0 0
VODI 0 165 22 374 488 144 8 0
ODI 0 66 15 143 491 225 80 0
CDI 0 29 8 121 525 337 35 0
VCDI 0 13 9 134 792 2517 5759 5815


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