Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-01-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75502 14514 201 724 161 2 0 0
OW 71 226 55 440 381 14 0 0
VODI 0 109 18 349 484 147 0 0
ODI 0 47 13 162 476 177 11 0
CDI 0 26 6 106 621 727 89 6
VCDI 0 4 3 61 771 6430 24585 59329
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75883 13843 162 602 186 27 0 0
OW 71 411 45 391 303 54 3 0
VODI 0 171 40 299 488 97 8 0
ODI 0 66 8 166 562 147 2 0
CDI 0 48 11 93 690 596 57 11
VCDI 0 18 10 130 993 7064 25561 57731
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76088 13606 179 791 240 0 0 0
OW 71 331 29 380 365 32 0 0
VODI 0 157 20 239 750 94 7 0
ODI 0 66 11 113 732 220 21 0
CDI 0 41 12 105 667 861 144 56
VCDI 0 14 12 131 1014 6367 24469 58613
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75971 13557 145 698 179 10 0 0
OW 77 410 28 360 346 48 0 0
VODI 0 295 26 244 535 78 17 0
ODI 0 118 21 172 651 160 74 0
CDI 0 83 13 158 712 480 147 34
VCDI 0 87 16 198 1025 5841 27620 56414
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75956 13525 146 759 257 21 0 0
OW 92 427 28 314 301 45 2 0
VODI 0 286 25 234 497 73 17 0
ODI 0 121 18 153 646 142 79 0
CDI 0 83 11 149 699 510 148 42
VCDI 0 108 21 221 1048 5826 27612 56406

Date: 2018-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76685 12951 222 519 135 0 0 0
OW 78 643 45 301 221 24 0 0
VODI 0 419 28 336 365 87 5 0
ODI 0 215 11 215 527 159 97 0
CDI 0 129 32 165 693 319 150 48
VCDI 0 76 21 287 1306 5179 23818 60537
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76676 12990 217 558 176 5 0 0
OW 86 593 53 285 194 29 0 0
VODI 1 403 22 317 359 80 6 0
ODI 0 206 13 193 461 129 82 0
CDI 0 141 28 158 677 338 181 64
VCDI 0 100 26 312 1380 5187 23801 60521

Date: 2018-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75831 14072 122 507 139 4 0 0
OW 66 712 78 424 168 7 0 0
VODI 0 353 63 586 497 45 0 0
ODI 0 79 18 231 841 176 37 0
CDI 0 54 18 201 949 576 341 39
VCDI 0 2 1 27 885 3876 19944 65079
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75825 13813 129 535 214 8 0 0
OW 72 601 58 340 217 45 0 0
VODI 0 370 51 426 338 68 16 0
ODI 0 193 12 213 596 107 85 7
CDI 0 145 17 148 674 320 182 29
VCDI 0 150 33 314 1440 4136 20039 65082

Date: 2018-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75258 14458 142 480 220 37 1 0
OW 68 626 71 428 232 24 5 0
VODI 0 293 42 509 518 72 27 0
ODI 0 62 26 230 659 142 39 0
CDI 0 3 4 159 700 761 167 8
VCDI 0 0 0 76 595 3883 16992 69031
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75258 14030 129 518 372 41 0 0
OW 68 605 63 297 191 75 6 0
VODI 0 430 34 335 432 124 28 0
ODI 0 181 16 235 473 225 126 7
CDI 0 119 20 160 532 520 79 41
VCDI 0 77 23 337 924 3934 16992 68991

Date: 2018-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74327 14772 142 611 186 8 0 0
OW 71 527 77 597 230 14 0 0
VODI 0 257 29 550 598 102 1 0
ODI 0 131 19 227 806 168 53 0
CDI 0 56 17 142 736 620 79 41
VCDI 0 21 12 178 898 3874 15687 70184
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74327 14538 151 754 293 13 0 0
OW 71 480 50 480 253 35 0 0
VODI 0 321 26 402 509 144 8 0
ODI 0 213 22 170 550 225 80 7
CDI 0 126 19 156 602 376 56 66
VCDI 0 86 28 343 1247 3993 15676 70152


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