Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-01-11

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75690 13657 139 429 325 84 0 0
OW 67 384 59 332 179 69 18 0
VODI 0 88 34 351 365 130 54 0
ODI 0 15 9 102 378 145 16 0
CDI 0 4 5 54 373 321 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 540 2682 7711 4214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75693 13847 133 434 218 40 0 0
OW 67 479 56 290 172 38 0 0
VODI 0 267 47 301 303 44 53 0
ODI 0 79 20 198 311 113 24 0
CDI 0 37 13 118 344 246 40 0
VCDI 0 6 9 113 749 2758 7638 3802
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75689 14117 170 615 280 16 0 0
OW 67 276 50 308 243 27 0 0
VODI 0 71 26 286 382 86 2 0
ODI 0 15 7 156 322 141 11 0
CDI 0 7 3 45 367 390 63 0
VCDI 0 1 0 33 513 2429 8865 3021
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-01-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75857 13892 188 602 88 0 0 0
OW 70 237 40 456 309 1 0 0
VODI 0 58 23 267 457 95 0 0
ODI 0 13 4 127 385 144 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 52 426 331 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 475 2855 7035 4594
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75857 13875 181 644 120 0 0 0
OW 70 263 47 370 259 1 0 0
VODI 0 58 25 294 469 77 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 143 344 160 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 51 435 331 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 513 2857 7035 4594

Date: 2018-01-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75715 13621 181 666 191 2 0 0
OW 71 192 38 392 313 31 0 0
VODI 0 54 20 237 492 109 6 0
ODI 0 18 4 105 413 178 6 0
CDI 0 2 6 57 411 364 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 497 3254 8742 2661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75715 13565 169 662 201 2 0 0
OW 71 239 49 359 280 13 0 0
VODI 0 58 21 278 478 109 2 0
ODI 0 20 3 104 410 171 7 0
CDI 0 5 7 49 402 361 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 546 3282 8738 2661

Date: 2018-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76271 12803 155 525 114 13 0 0
OW 72 301 53 434 248 12 0 0
VODI 0 69 17 346 663 61 1 0
ODI 0 21 1 82 695 160 6 0
CDI 0 14 5 45 573 496 57 0
VCDI 0 9 6 53 607 3354 7382 3376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76272 12604 160 633 245 41 0 0
OW 71 352 35 331 258 51 5 0
VODI 0 148 19 217 545 75 26 0
ODI 0 44 9 103 466 116 16 0
CDI 0 23 2 76 468 286 9 0
VCDI 0 46 12 125 918 3527 7390 3376

Date: 2018-01-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76005 12806 152 791 188 2 0 0
OW 72 287 23 319 347 46 0 0
VODI 0 131 15 184 565 77 18 0
ODI 0 46 15 110 571 150 50 0
CDI 0 20 8 100 503 334 85 0
VCDI 0 11 8 117 839 3450 7675 2980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76006 12603 147 820 349 81 13 0
OW 71 346 18 257 309 71 19 0
VODI 0 159 20 209 534 76 57 0
ODI 0 77 7 72 523 117 34 0
CDI 0 61 7 57 410 262 27 0
VCDI 0 55 22 206 888 3452 7678 2980

Date: 2018-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76050 12984 124 537 160 8 0 0
OW 83 434 40 311 298 39 0 0
VODI 0 229 25 238 452 95 23 0
ODI 0 101 18 130 444 246 76 0
CDI 0 44 18 148 439 492 96 0
VCDI 0 10 10 156 796 2626 5922 5198
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76057 12728 128 650 429 74 10 0
OW 76 420 24 212 297 116 24 0
VODI 0 291 30 169 339 179 75 0
ODI 0 128 12 104 276 243 63 0
CDI 0 105 9 116 313 247 36 0
VCDI 0 130 32 269 935 2647 5909 5198


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