Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-12-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80188 11861 106 386 229 155 0 0
OW 115 522 57 284 83 37 0 0
VODI 6 239 33 347 269 26 0 0
ODI 0 81 17 223 278 57 0 0
CDI 0 27 13 145 390 237 2 0
VCDI 0 11 5 167 834 2202 7498 1970
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78999 12341 120 400 201 191 26 0
OW 107 754 46 295 85 21 13 0
VODI 0 371 28 278 294 44 0 0
ODI 0 134 23 215 300 53 0 0
CDI 0 24 9 176 340 256 9 0
VCDI 0 3 3 152 822 2148 7922 1897
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78628 13235 149 494 204 223 17 0
OW 61 281 43 401 129 30 0 0
VODI 0 90 39 360 300 61 5 0
ODI 0 7 1 220 355 91 10 0
CDI 0 0 3 54 485 296 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 388 2476 8790 1150
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78358 12703 125 484 226 224 13 0
OW 78 323 34 357 169 41 1 0
VODI 2 172 28 243 413 75 1 0
ODI 0 24 16 146 376 145 12 0
CDI 0 3 0 110 370 347 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 472 2864 8973 1133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78364 12741 132 542 237 233 14 0
OW 74 300 28 325 187 36 0 0
VODI 0 155 28 217 418 87 3 0
ODI 0 23 15 142 334 143 11 0
CDI 0 6 0 107 359 318 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 491 2879 8975 1133

Date: 2017-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76693 13539 154 572 220 215 30 0
OW 64 300 37 458 135 42 24 0
VODI 0 103 31 323 382 57 16 0
ODI 0 9 6 172 472 119 6 0
CDI 0 0 2 74 615 167 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 32 673 2304 6075 4966
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76693 13600 156 605 239 222 21 0
OW 64 248 38 434 137 42 29 0
VODI 0 93 28 312 393 56 20 0
ODI 0 10 6 168 448 111 6 0
CDI 0 0 2 83 562 164 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 718 2309 6075 4966

Date: 2018-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76006 14045 186 713 217 80 0 0
OW 63 119 39 462 312 157 1 0
VODI 0 18 11 325 516 72 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 57 546 148 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 535 436 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 185 2240 6830 4663
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76004 13885 165 659 249 195 1 0
OW 65 245 45 409 180 68 26 0
VODI 0 48 22 326 387 55 46 0
ODI 0 4 3 126 463 80 31 0
CDI 0 0 1 45 486 274 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 546 2461 6822 4663

Date: 2018-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75495 14090 184 655 308 71 2 0
OW 65 188 52 390 237 75 53 0
VODI 0 30 18 310 477 107 19 0
ODI 0 1 1 69 439 178 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 439 434 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 284 2157 7175 5007
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75493 13923 175 742 308 91 49 0
OW 67 266 45 312 283 71 33 0
VODI 0 93 21 226 440 120 38 0
ODI 0 23 11 101 353 194 32 0
CDI 0 4 3 47 382 339 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 418 2207 7164 5007

Date: 2018-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75500 13725 151 538 326 84 0 0
OW 67 357 53 365 179 69 18 0
VODI 0 79 35 356 368 130 54 0
ODI 0 14 9 103 378 145 16 0
CDI 0 4 5 54 373 322 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 540 2682 7711 4214
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75497 13534 148 599 432 141 28 0
OW 70 414 49 350 243 113 51 0
VODI 0 147 30 256 347 184 21 0
ODI 0 52 13 109 264 243 27 0
CDI 0 24 9 68 284 312 46 0
VCDI 0 8 4 63 594 2439 7673 4214


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