Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-12-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 331 8 46 4 0 0 0
OW 0 95 7 66 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 4 220 257 42 0 0
ODI 0 19 4 206 352 192 4 4
CDI 0 25 2 49 243 764 372 54
VCDI 0 7 3 36 203 1980 13036 27116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 430 3 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 174 15 55 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 10 93 163 47 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 67 262 264 7 0
CDI 0 17 3 75 390 800 261 7
VCDI 0 3 1 49 252 3696 13146 25459
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 474 29 131 31 0 0 0
OW 0 5 5 64 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 163 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 236 210 36 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 273 731 283 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 1932 13139 27899
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 341 20 90 14 0 0 0
OW 0 6 6 112 53 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 9 121 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 97 130 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 256 407 82 31
VCDI 0 0 0 10 121 1971 10741 31192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 342 20 103 22 0 0 0
OW 0 5 6 95 52 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 123 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 70 152 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 245 383 119 41
VCDI 0 0 0 19 150 1974 10696 31182

Date: 2017-12-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 127 8 110 36 0 0 0
OW 0 26 3 26 86 1 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 24 70 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 60 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 84 283 78 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 239 1934 12015 30425
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 134 10 126 50 0 0 0
OW 0 17 1 14 92 4 0 0
VODI 0 6 5 26 57 83 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 57 142 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 268 96 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 250 1930 11997 30423

Date: 2018-01-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 74 9 63 3 0 0 0
OW 0 2 2 72 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 34 131 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 81 125 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 80 654 121 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 1834 10498 31967
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 45 6 72 42 0 0 0
OW 0 20 4 41 55 7 0 0
VODI 0 11 1 29 101 44 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 59 109 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 46 245 7 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 2222 10618 31959

Date: 2018-01-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 1 24 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 14 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 4 112 40 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 63 67 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 114 142 15 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 2301 10136 32570
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 73 4 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 71 17 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 99 82 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 67 70 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 95 150 65 48
VCDI 0 0 0 0 147 2227 10074 32546

Date: 2018-01-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 133 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 166 0 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 152 16 26
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2022 10678 32651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 91 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 222 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 128 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 152 38 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 1877 10651 32645


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