Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-12-21

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-25

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 688 10 47 20 2 0 0
OW 0 13 11 64 28 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 69 40 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 166 16 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 310 155 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 222 1079 6806 27093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 574 5 19 17 3 0 0
OW 0 61 3 28 7 4 0 0
VODI 0 39 9 34 13 15 0 0
ODI 0 22 1 35 24 13 0 0
CDI 0 5 4 73 90 21 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 635 1222 6808 27093

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 48 581 2504
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 48 581 2504

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 46 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 53 58 13 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 503 3081 6159
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 32 7 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 63 46 17 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 520 3076 6153

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 553 18 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 22 119 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 80 165 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 192 145 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 287 82 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 408 2871 465
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 366 5 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 154 20 69 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 15 91 94 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 117 151 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 149 239 154 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 441 2749 465

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 77 50
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 164 5168 1780
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 69 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 167 5176 1817

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 53 1544 3713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 53 1544 3725

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20 259 2 4 1 0 0 0
OW 0 68 0 14 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 8 170 45 2 0 0
ODI 0 38 2 70 353 99 2 0
CDI 0 32 3 62 110 227 45 0
VCDI 0 26 3 8 56 823 3697 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20 198 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 65 2 15 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 5 121 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 50 3 74 130 66 1 0
CDI 0 36 0 29 133 174 29 0
VCDI 0 116 7 86 194 911 3714 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7508 2746 15 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 318 9 84 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 127 13 175 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 2 50 40 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 46 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 49 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7508 2554 9 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 210 10 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 205 2 69 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 138 10 84 36 0 0 0
CDI 0 40 5 128 11 9 0 0
VCDI 0 67 3 42 97 68 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6534 2606 17 62 4 0 0 0
OW 0 36 6 73 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 8 34 81 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 25 68 11 0 0
CDI 0 2 2 21 70 54 2 0
VCDI 0 0 1 16 116 646 1140 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6534 2551 13 82 21 0 0 0
OW 0 57 9 40 40 6 0 0
VODI 0 38 2 27 67 10 0 0
ODI 0 17 5 23 54 14 0 0
CDI 0 8 3 28 56 55 1 0
VCDI 0 6 3 31 127 627 1141 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8723 3233 41 182 160 220 19 0
OW 0 5 4 43 37 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 15 43 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 48 40 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 60 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8723 3223 39 196 193 268 19 0
OW 0 15 5 24 19 22 6 0
VODI 0 0 1 20 46 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 41 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 37 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 379 24 121 16 0 0 0
OW 0 4 3 43 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 73 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 75 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 76 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 524 2892 1361
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 356 17 72 2 0 0 0
OW 0 18 6 54 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 3 40 66 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 23 71 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 82 55 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 68 574 2892 1361

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 32 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 137 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 129 195 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1144 4026 2850
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 55 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 98 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 100 298 40
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1191 3931 2837

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14838 3459 32 56 8 0 0 0
OW 0 57 20 74 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 4 93 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 219 140 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 166 261 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 377 236 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14837 3151 12 9 0 0 0 0
OW 1 259 21 56 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 85 20 80 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 24 1 67 42 12 0 0
CDI 0 15 2 44 139 202 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 276 564 236 0


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