Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-12-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81064 12951 129 674 424 308 0 0
OW 62 711 71 824 426 130 0 0
VODI 0 328 56 674 886 233 0 0
ODI 0 71 19 284 953 358 13 0
CDI 0 47 4 121 1000 1071 133 14
VCDI 0 88 10 131 1303 11542 26421 43514
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80811 12626 136 579 253 214 13 0
OW 64 843 99 739 354 134 0 0
VODI 0 208 51 579 987 476 0 0
ODI 0 38 14 223 764 578 50 0
CDI 0 22 2 120 798 1030 284 46
VCDI 0 30 7 52 889 8399 29201 45335
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79305 13698 192 664 286 162 21 0
OW 75 426 62 695 325 31 0 0
VODI 0 241 43 760 1176 146 2 0
ODI 0 27 7 197 955 724 14 0
CDI 0 7 3 89 653 1582 266 35
VCDI 0 3 0 28 363 6054 24959 52772
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79661 13145 129 480 267 201 71 0
OW 216 711 77 438 176 52 24 0
VODI 9 400 54 811 747 86 12 0
ODI 0 131 20 465 772 380 84 0
CDI 0 67 16 247 613 1314 548 47
VCDI 0 43 6 232 1197 6267 28135 48697
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79731 13247 129 511 313 209 94 0
OW 146 590 78 417 218 61 1 0
VODI 9 412 47 734 587 93 50 0
ODI 0 141 23 509 812 358 145 0
CDI 0 59 17 245 650 1215 560 51
VCDI 0 48 8 257 1192 6364 28024 48693

Date: 2017-12-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79942 12968 119 418 186 160 50 0
OW 73 868 78 368 110 22 5 0
VODI 0 505 53 616 605 57 0 0
ODI 0 271 31 421 838 271 3 0
CDI 0 143 16 302 744 1241 179 23
VCDI 0 130 24 349 1256 7567 27340 48696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79954 13137 123 432 193 169 55 0
OW 61 710 76 381 186 15 0 0
VODI 0 492 47 580 521 74 0 0
ODI 0 268 34 405 708 306 19 0
CDI 0 126 17 319 862 1208 220 26
VCDI 0 152 24 357 1269 7546 27283 48693

Date: 2017-12-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79423 13923 159 528 209 222 19 0
OW 60 537 75 514 190 28 0 0
VODI 0 249 34 662 511 122 0 0
ODI 0 69 5 231 1207 625 83 0
CDI 0 34 5 115 924 1344 426 93
VCDI 0 26 4 24 578 5823 32042 45925
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79421 12973 101 395 233 271 19 0
OW 62 839 76 300 118 32 6 0
VODI 0 482 57 482 425 134 0 0
ODI 0 251 21 364 547 389 120 0
CDI 0 104 14 327 758 945 577 63
VCDI 0 189 13 206 1538 6393 31848 45955

Date: 2017-12-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78916 13589 140 561 245 236 4 0
OW 77 462 55 448 210 41 0 0
VODI 4 239 35 363 485 96 6 0
ODI 0 64 19 217 683 290 46 0
CDI 0 38 13 158 938 1173 254 70
VCDI 0 20 6 88 734 6086 34843 45096
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78748 12793 109 430 245 277 4 0
OW 186 765 52 335 128 56 0 0
VODI 53 456 44 382 366 73 15 0
ODI 10 200 24 233 552 196 36 0
CDI 0 109 26 215 648 913 399 60
VCDI 0 89 13 240 1356 6407 34699 45106

Date: 2017-12-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77953 13605 146 547 237 222 24 0
OW 81 489 65 430 198 47 13 0
VODI 2 210 42 451 486 114 0 0
ODI 0 63 18 282 550 276 2 0
CDI 0 43 4 151 858 927 135 28
VCDI 0 41 9 104 1071 6135 27613 53376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77883 12915 141 610 311 255 37 0
OW 123 678 53 311 219 101 0 0
VODI 25 421 38 323 445 122 1 0
ODI 5 198 18 263 356 232 15 0
CDI 0 102 18 253 571 583 278 294
VCDI 0 137 16 205 1498 6428 27456 53110


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