Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82378 10272 70 501 516 345 0 0
OW 50 550 47 342 160 39 0 0
VODI 0 241 33 357 478 33 0 0
ODI 0 40 15 131 445 154 0 0
CDI 0 22 1 72 327 346 10 0
VCDI 0 5 6 43 668 2460 5928 2015
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80414 11777 107 475 422 368 36 0
OW 51 521 45 469 179 49 0 0
VODI 0 125 28 381 571 105 0 0
ODI 0 31 4 162 461 276 7 0
CDI 0 16 1 53 336 549 85 0
VCDI 0 1 4 25 262 2314 7778 612
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80864 11895 134 660 373 202 0 0
OW 52 121 49 499 143 13 0 0
VODI 0 13 7 333 447 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 649 132 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 492 825 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 117 2911 7547 490
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79867 12438 136 608 303 209 21 0
OW 56 246 31 422 163 19 0 0
VODI 0 72 22 306 401 49 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 80 497 117 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 497 498 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 280 2852 7976 824
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79867 12516 141 672 325 205 21 0
OW 56 172 29 367 167 23 0 0
VODI 0 68 19 278 401 62 0 0
ODI 0 5 4 99 482 122 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 481 562 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 285 2770 7967 824

Date: 2017-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80922 11454 89 413 263 233 0 0
OW 64 324 53 374 138 10 0 0
VODI 0 84 32 351 324 31 0 0
ODI 0 5 13 137 372 91 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 55 462 272 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 633 2671 8842 365
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80923 11521 99 440 269 225 0 0
OW 63 238 43 351 139 17 0 0
VODI 0 100 28 315 284 37 0 0
ODI 0 8 17 157 358 76 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 58 461 256 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 681 2697 8844 365

Date: 2017-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80327 11983 150 465 187 183 19 0
OW 84 113 49 593 194 19 0 0
VODI 4 5 2 245 569 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 552 129 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 362 500 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 168 2080 7083 2922
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80344 11750 121 447 211 202 19 0
OW 71 285 49 347 142 15 0 0
VODI 0 56 28 353 361 36 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 144 376 109 3 0
CDI 0 2 1 30 504 225 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 438 2375 7098 2922

Date: 2017-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79877 12249 126 381 204 164 45 0
OW 83 467 65 436 87 34 0 0
VODI 0 85 21 433 388 22 0 0
ODI 0 2 6 121 410 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 446 332 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 417 2767 7215 2058
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79900 11954 116 387 278 206 45 0
OW 60 472 44 275 107 25 0 0
VODI 0 233 23 323 219 78 0 0
ODI 0 93 15 176 269 91 0 0
CDI 0 45 16 164 369 194 10 0
VCDI 0 6 4 116 710 2798 7221 2058

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80188 11861 106 386 229 155 0 0
OW 115 522 57 284 83 37 0 0
VODI 6 239 33 347 269 26 0 0
ODI 0 81 17 223 278 57 0 0
CDI 0 27 13 145 390 237 2 0
VCDI 0 11 5 167 834 2202 7498 1970
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80229 11349 114 462 301 207 0 0
OW 76 508 39 206 112 18 0 0
VODI 4 331 22 260 234 56 0 0
ODI 0 148 12 133 251 91 0 0
CDI 0 209 21 128 260 241 19 0
VCDI 0 196 23 363 925 2101 7481 1970


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