Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 3524 59 338 110 9 0 0
OW 0 626 32 367 304 107 0 0
VODI 0 68 22 327 413 385 1 0
ODI 0 2 0 46 364 752 83 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 331 1227 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 361 4150 9486 21952
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1867 70 696 120 2 0 0
OW 0 473 31 477 441 233 0 0
VODI 0 135 18 281 487 420 40 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 336 338 160 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 156 816 478 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 222 3165 11961 22377
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1411 72 656 178 0 0 0
OW 0 84 21 320 551 34 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 78 651 170 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 435 510 61 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 323 1042 393 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 182 3878 12139 22635
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 913 24 277 204 31 0 0
OW 0 299 26 346 395 40 0 0
VODI 0 45 15 232 614 170 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 53 460 318 41 0
CDI 0 18 6 40 371 518 255 0
VCDI 0 0 0 48 386 4155 11666 23889
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 927 32 356 283 48 0 0
OW 0 275 20 297 373 41 0 0
VODI 0 55 13 187 539 162 1 0
ODI 0 14 2 72 434 315 114 0
CDI 0 14 5 35 346 483 187 4
VCDI 0 0 0 49 455 4183 11660 23885

Date: 2017-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 826 26 121 9 60 0 0
OW 0 242 21 317 172 166 0 0
VODI 0 63 8 261 580 212 2 0
ODI 0 3 3 88 428 264 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 388 612 103 13
VCDI 0 0 0 5 388 5105 12866 22409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 906 32 184 49 120 0 0
OW 0 166 13 261 219 158 1 0
VODI 0 60 10 249 457 185 12 0
ODI 0 2 3 119 421 280 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 422 447 71 10
VCDI 0 0 0 3 397 5229 12863 22412

Date: 2017-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 178 19 147 79 0 0 0
OW 0 235 20 219 131 20 0 0
VODI 0 132 7 173 495 306 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 51 365 862 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 238 795 441 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 153 2848 13523 24382
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 233 22 229 103 20 0 0
OW 0 233 15 132 138 112 0 0
VODI 0 79 9 130 429 426 7 0
ODI 0 2 2 66 231 453 134 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 216 522 273 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 344 3298 13582 24382

Date: 2017-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 342 22 65 30 0 0 0
OW 0 157 8 111 79 12 0 0
VODI 0 50 20 314 319 69 0 0
ODI 0 26 2 173 432 400 52 0
CDI 0 14 3 72 186 894 186 5
VCDI 0 0 0 36 223 2762 13069 25733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 341 24 80 33 0 0 0
OW 0 133 10 131 120 3 0 0
VODI 0 45 8 294 309 177 54 0
ODI 0 21 7 92 339 504 206 0
CDI 0 22 2 54 183 561 345 0
VCDI 0 27 4 120 285 2892 12702 25738

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 331 8 46 4 0 0 0
OW 0 95 7 66 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 4 220 257 42 0 0
ODI 0 19 4 206 352 192 4 4
CDI 0 25 2 49 243 764 372 54
VCDI 0 7 3 36 203 1980 13036 27116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 300 7 33 43 1 0 0
OW 0 55 4 80 140 15 0 0
VODI 0 42 4 225 282 121 14 0
ODI 0 28 2 119 228 352 284 0
CDI 0 16 2 51 148 591 534 2
VCDI 0 68 9 115 301 1898 12580 27172


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