Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-12-14

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82686 14487 146 910 658 356 0 0
OW 50 1370 100 784 505 156 0 0
VODI 0 358 61 775 975 457 6 0
ODI 0 81 17 182 911 979 101 0
CDI 0 61 4 129 679 1722 244 0
VCDI 0 31 11 134 1153 7603 24154 44012
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80449 14156 188 1227 584 377 36 0
OW 51 1103 82 1019 662 295 1 0
VODI 0 327 55 761 1144 571 54 0
ODI 0 63 5 229 900 680 197 0
CDI 0 46 5 68 502 1584 633 4
VCDI 0 21 10 79 609 6326 28033 43912
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80948 13820 215 1364 578 211 0 0
OW 52 308 80 887 753 82 0 0
VODI 0 40 11 504 1203 302 8 0
ODI 0 19 2 66 1166 701 119 0
CDI 0 6 3 68 873 1978 564 8
VCDI 0 0 0 4 359 7556 27729 44461
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80002 13820 171 945 547 240 21 0
OW 56 685 61 828 645 59 0 0
VODI 0 228 45 591 1152 239 0 0
ODI 0 58 8 192 1006 499 49 0
CDI 0 59 9 77 947 1165 314 4
VCDI 0 36 11 134 864 9539 27082 44660
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80002 14008 186 1115 682 253 21 0
OW 56 544 52 712 624 64 0 0
VODI 0 190 40 542 1047 240 1 0
ODI 0 68 8 193 990 480 122 0
CDI 0 56 9 69 904 1177 253 5
VCDI 0 20 10 136 914 9527 27069 44659

Date: 2017-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81036 12788 127 603 329 293 0 0
OW 64 727 90 806 377 176 0 0
VODI 0 243 46 683 1011 245 2 0
ODI 0 49 22 260 865 404 36 0
CDI 0 34 4 152 899 1021 121 33
VCDI 0 50 9 98 1203 9829 29852 42461
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81037 13023 151 714 394 345 0 0
OW 63 524 65 715 420 175 1 0
VODI 0 229 48 641 838 226 12 0
ODI 0 38 22 312 853 377 61 0
CDI 0 35 4 123 931 833 87 26
VCDI 0 42 8 97 1248 10012 29850 42468

Date: 2017-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80405 12675 177 623 266 183 19 0
OW 84 431 79 873 343 39 0 0
VODI 4 351 30 673 1215 359 0 0
ODI 0 16 4 117 1047 1023 34 0
CDI 0 13 3 34 678 1471 503 54
VCDI 0 5 1 27 397 6160 28352 48280
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80422 12558 155 768 350 222 19 0
OW 71 655 77 592 362 127 0 0
VODI 0 211 48 579 890 471 7 0
ODI 0 33 7 266 658 612 137 0
CDI 0 19 4 90 780 862 313 69
VCDI 0 15 3 52 906 6941 28432 48265

Date: 2017-12-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79981 13088 150 459 234 164 45 0
OW 83 678 86 591 181 46 0 0
VODI 0 272 55 883 915 94 0 0
ODI 0 55 13 374 992 540 52 0
CDI 0 34 6 158 720 1353 217 23
VCDI 0 4 1 70 757 6007 26651 51016
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80004 12778 150 547 358 206 45 0
OW 60 733 63 459 299 28 0 0
VODI 0 344 44 722 714 303 54 0
ODI 0 134 23 299 671 701 208 0
CDI 0 91 19 226 615 864 441 15
VCDI 0 51 12 282 1142 6102 26217 51024

Date: 2017-12-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80306 12726 118 436 233 155 0 0
OW 115 732 71 383 172 37 0 0
VODI 6 437 50 698 725 68 0 0
ODI 0 194 30 500 721 342 5 4
CDI 0 117 18 238 689 1159 416 72
VCDI 0 91 22 315 1294 6021 28520 48812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80347 12131 135 569 369 208 0 0
OW 76 704 49 341 331 33 0 0
VODI 4 482 37 546 682 245 14 0
ODI 0 220 16 295 499 533 323 0
CDI 0 271 23 206 459 949 662 18
VCDI 0 489 49 613 1494 5814 27942 48870


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