Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-12-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81617 11790 103 620 535 38 0 0
OW 34 472 57 428 214 25 0 0
VODI 0 103 20 331 475 145 0 0
ODI 0 20 8 98 391 184 6 0
CDI 0 4 3 73 294 421 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 195 1883 7064 1427
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81631 11164 110 661 474 221 0 0
OW 35 396 38 409 248 18 0 0
VODI 0 196 32 300 748 60 0 0
ODI 0 46 13 159 401 256 0 0
CDI 0 12 7 113 247 420 30 0
VCDI 0 1 1 36 529 2679 6370 1039
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81862 11289 133 696 463 115 0 0
OW 35 313 32 379 171 7 0 0
VODI 0 89 22 401 548 25 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 120 714 123 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 387 405 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 388 2058 4397 3841
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80914 11803 106 552 423 329 0 0
OW 38 478 58 321 151 15 0 0
VODI 0 194 30 377 494 13 0 0
ODI 0 31 8 121 591 104 0 0
CDI 0 12 4 74 282 417 13 0
VCDI 0 1 2 46 636 2392 4381 3689
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80914 11769 118 597 447 330 0 0
OW 38 468 47 302 161 13 0 0
VODI 0 235 28 345 426 17 0 0
ODI 0 33 9 119 618 119 0 0
CDI 0 13 2 76 287 477 24 0
VCDI 0 1 4 52 638 2314 4370 3689

Date: 2017-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79433 12958 115 532 505 324 0 0
OW 50 553 53 425 199 38 0 0
VODI 0 174 28 332 502 139 0 0
ODI 0 39 12 149 357 295 0 0
CDI 0 18 2 59 308 423 39 0
VCDI 0 9 4 31 446 2591 7367 591
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79433 12963 123 566 558 343 0 0
OW 50 461 44 392 188 19 0 0
VODI 0 237 26 323 482 103 0 0
ODI 0 65 15 138 361 343 0 0
CDI 0 18 2 82 262 519 63 0
VCDI 0 7 4 27 466 2483 7343 591

Date: 2017-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80188 12212 149 611 396 361 63 0
OW 51 147 32 626 209 34 0 0
VODI 0 10 13 368 612 61 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 645 289 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 263 914 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 2161 7821 670
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80188 11762 119 565 459 412 60 0
OW 51 392 36 389 155 33 3 0
VODI 0 167 25 438 548 104 0 0
ODI 0 43 8 151 504 328 6 0
CDI 0 5 6 88 311 667 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 244 2276 7736 670

Date: 2017-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80396 12186 143 711 315 169 0 0
OW 59 165 38 467 161 10 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 259 499 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 44 577 113 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 458 722 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 156 3027 7655 605
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80395 11813 111 577 348 175 0 0
OW 60 349 42 312 160 23 0 0
VODI 0 156 27 434 444 66 3 0
ODI 0 44 6 96 528 168 8 0
CDI 0 7 2 64 449 642 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 237 3013 7632 605

Date: 2017-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80985 11438 91 463 277 234 0 0
OW 62 299 49 352 144 21 0 0
VODI 0 95 35 327 316 46 0 0
ODI 0 4 8 144 383 95 6 0
CDI 0 1 1 38 454 323 30 0
VCDI 0 0 1 27 676 2961 8152 562
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80984 11053 72 363 291 246 0 0
OW 63 446 40 231 111 31 0 0
VODI 0 276 52 364 268 40 0 0
ODI 0 39 16 269 391 151 6 0
CDI 0 14 1 74 524 356 66 0
VCDI 0 9 4 50 665 2856 8116 562


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