Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-12-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 506 5112 90 548 341 85 0 0
OW 6 452 43 372 620 82 2 0
VODI 0 142 20 255 738 308 46 0
ODI 0 16 5 73 506 398 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 268 960 270 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 2425 11282 19733
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 361 4432 69 498 256 116 0 0
OW 0 583 47 475 469 262 20 0
VODI 0 135 27 356 563 333 60 0
ODI 0 42 7 130 555 419 127 0
CDI 0 1 1 33 397 665 246 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 2654 11457 19953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 353 4505 73 387 60 43 0 0
OW 0 328 48 582 253 76 0 0
VODI 0 31 11 295 862 310 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 956 446 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 369 1015 134 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 2287 10292 21914
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 330 4034 71 306 71 0 0 0
OW 1 549 53 430 336 12 0 0
VODI 0 35 14 285 568 556 1 0
ODI 0 1 0 78 364 837 24 0
CDI 0 0 0 65 226 1238 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 34 306 3412 8338 23221
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 329 4172 89 429 152 0 0 0
OW 2 407 37 294 302 12 0 0
VODI 0 38 12 275 507 591 5 0
ODI 0 2 0 90 369 714 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 215 1215 64 0
VCDI 0 0 0 47 326 3523 8327 23221

Date: 2017-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70 2913 68 359 47 18 0 0
OW 0 577 44 429 398 169 0 0
VODI 0 86 18 305 467 371 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 363 514 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 266 1001 354 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 328 4297 10745 21515
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70 2990 81 460 146 60 0 0
OW 0 436 31 367 353 170 0 0
VODI 0 150 18 244 410 340 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 345 537 143 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 263 913 311 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 352 4350 10725 21515

Date: 2017-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1858 95 688 163 0 0 0
OW 0 42 15 391 476 13 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 94 756 210 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 560 968 113 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 225 1132 686 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 3003 12686 21582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1374 55 626 449 1 0 0
OW 0 365 30 264 493 275 4 0
VODI 0 149 23 244 437 491 48 0
ODI 0 13 2 44 383 279 149 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 232 565 330 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 282 3715 12954 21582

Date: 2017-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 860 60 588 329 0 0 0
OW 0 104 16 251 644 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 88 769 245 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 343 333 35 0
CDI 0 0 3 59 262 789 368 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 255 3656 11368 24385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 627 30 448 508 28 0 0
OW 0 269 31 227 453 117 1 0
VODI 0 64 15 212 625 605 223 0
ODI 0 5 4 27 434 310 182 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 200 416 333 23
VCDI 0 0 3 105 382 3549 11032 24362

Date: 2017-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 960 22 141 96 74 0 0
OW 0 262 17 391 210 109 0 0
VODI 0 116 15 283 460 176 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 89 519 210 7 0
CDI 0 5 1 52 493 615 103 7
VCDI 0 0 0 24 393 5186 11521 23284
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 816 17 279 115 5 0 0
OW 0 358 22 311 303 10 0 0
VODI 0 149 14 226 641 400 21 0
ODI 0 24 0 51 319 800 107 0
CDI 0 5 0 21 290 449 137 0
VCDI 0 12 6 92 503 4706 11366 23291


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