Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-12-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82123 18071 209 1271 911 123 0 0
OW 40 1064 109 850 875 110 2 0
VODI 0 389 45 642 1274 477 46 0
ODI 0 85 25 245 963 625 73 0
CDI 0 4 3 139 698 1515 289 14
VCDI 0 0 0 25 453 6089 24785 42387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81994 16667 186 1259 763 337 0 0
OW 35 1234 95 904 753 282 20 0
VODI 0 523 76 729 1332 414 60 0
ODI 0 113 27 434 1009 709 127 0
CDI 0 14 9 239 783 1216 284 19
VCDI 0 1 1 68 973 7545 24584 41230
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82252 17002 225 1203 523 158 0 0
OW 35 805 93 1031 462 83 0 0
VODI 0 186 40 789 1544 335 7 0
ODI 0 46 9 197 1832 614 61 0
CDI 0 32 8 87 861 1656 165 4
VCDI 0 3 4 82 718 5956 22307 45633
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81321 16683 195 939 506 329 0 0
OW 39 1212 133 837 523 28 0 0
VODI 0 273 49 756 1177 586 1 0
ODI 0 67 9 210 1060 1037 24 0
CDI 0 54 6 145 548 1883 118 0
VCDI 0 34 7 156 1099 7263 20545 47196
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81320 16862 225 1111 612 331 0 0
OW 40 984 105 669 486 27 0 0
VODI 0 319 46 710 1041 616 5 0
ODI 0 72 10 232 1090 918 37 0
CDI 0 52 4 148 560 1916 112 0
VCDI 0 34 9 173 1124 7318 20534 47196

Date: 2017-12-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79553 16493 194 953 572 343 0 0
OW 50 1291 111 906 641 220 0 0
VODI 0 334 57 735 1057 549 8 0
ODI 0 74 13 204 815 886 110 0
CDI 0 51 6 75 594 1601 468 1
VCDI 0 25 10 100 895 7708 26462 42883
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79553 16622 218 1103 735 407 0 0
OW 50 1047 91 822 590 194 0 0
VODI 0 440 50 633 981 478 9 0
ODI 0 98 16 219 757 961 159 0
CDI 0 45 6 99 575 1625 465 1
VCDI 0 16 10 97 936 7642 26415 42883

Date: 2017-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80220 14631 255 1348 601 371 63 0
OW 51 293 57 1102 762 69 0 0
VODI 0 32 17 530 1521 346 9 0
ODI 0 13 2 62 1301 1418 136 0
CDI 0 5 2 43 553 2303 1027 9
VCDI 0 0 0 2 223 5922 28461 43288
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80220 13651 186 1270 991 443 62 0
OW 51 824 67 680 728 323 10 0
VODI 0 386 57 759 1067 657 50 0
ODI 0 83 12 206 953 691 158 0
CDI 0 22 8 112 567 1400 518 2
VCDI 0 8 3 60 655 6915 28898 43295

Date: 2017-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80495 13549 212 1344 678 171 0 0
OW 59 406 54 780 882 22 0 0
VODI 0 107 18 428 1409 314 0 0
ODI 0 27 6 99 995 513 37 0
CDI 0 27 7 82 791 1639 481 7
VCDI 0 6 4 88 561 7916 27602 45232
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80494 12876 150 1095 946 216 0 0
OW 60 710 74 578 689 140 1 0
VODI 0 345 43 684 1156 699 226 0
ODI 0 114 19 173 998 539 190 0
CDI 0 44 4 119 696 1168 464 49
VCDI 0 33 11 172 831 7813 27239 45190

Date: 2017-12-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81064 12951 129 674 424 308 0 0
OW 62 711 71 824 426 130 0 0
VODI 0 328 56 674 886 233 0 0
ODI 0 71 19 284 953 358 13 0
CDI 0 47 4 121 1000 1071 133 14
VCDI 0 88 10 131 1303 11542 26421 43514
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81063 12284 101 723 474 251 0 0
OW 63 940 67 608 463 41 0 0
VODI 0 571 72 630 986 447 21 0
ODI 0 145 21 344 769 974 113 0
CDI 0 69 6 139 842 929 210 33
VCDI 0 187 22 264 1458 11000 26223 43495


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