Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-11-30

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-12-04

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 633 17 53 6 0 0 0
OW 0 42 2 51 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 7 48 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 107 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 164 58 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 272 1207 6952 27106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 477 5 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 78 7 21 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 84 3 32 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 45 7 50 39 3 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 84 80 29 5 0
VCDI 0 1 0 40 461 1237 6955 27106

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 97 3033
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 97 3033

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 6 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 300 2866 6776
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 306 2869 6780

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 110 2917 32 127 4 0 0 0
OW 0 121 38 277 94 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 4 104 368 31 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 21 203 114 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 179 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 421 441 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 95 2494 27 143 98 0 0 0
OW 15 350 21 125 92 5 0 0
VODI 0 142 15 145 153 37 0 0
ODI 0 64 9 89 195 62 1 0
CDI 0 5 3 27 135 98 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 543 434 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 61 3 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 3 70 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 48 72 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 122 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 168 12 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 97 390 1964 4118
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 6 57 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 58 73 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 108 73 0 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 525 1976 4112

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 99 5224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 99 5224

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 844 11 103 5 0 0 0
OW 0 178 8 80 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 7 115 88 3 0 0
ODI 0 7 4 39 132 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 56 188 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 164 1299 2802 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 770 6 96 38 0 0 0
OW 0 158 6 14 32 1 0 0
VODI 0 85 12 118 15 22 0 0
ODI 0 29 0 69 70 25 0 0
CDI 0 19 2 25 121 107 15 0
VCDI 0 2 4 72 211 1386 2801 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7447 2941 24 83 5 0 0 0
OW 0 248 9 25 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 66 13 90 35 6 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 22 24 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 30 20 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 83 92 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7447 2727 19 45 6 0 0 0
OW 0 251 4 17 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 203 8 48 26 8 0 0
ODI 0 60 12 50 20 10 0 0
CDI 0 15 1 42 24 13 2 0
VCDI 0 1 2 21 45 95 93 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6561 2640 20 143 23 6 0 0
OW 0 23 6 76 60 7 0 0
VODI 0 7 7 33 119 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 17 93 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 57 137 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 86 607 883 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6561 2579 12 111 36 17 0 0
OW 0 50 9 74 32 15 0 0
VODI 0 27 5 41 93 23 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 15 82 29 2 0
CDI 0 1 5 23 77 121 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 118 610 851 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9923 2104 33 309 435 184 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9923 2104 33 309 434 183 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 686 33 135 13 0 0 0
OW 0 32 6 107 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 6 98 293 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 186 212 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 36 464 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 572 2829 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 651 25 104 31 0 0 0
OW 0 24 10 143 54 3 0 0
VODI 0 28 2 63 298 99 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 13 101 192 0 0
CDI 0 6 4 14 24 316 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 62 647 2816 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 90 1406 40 227 55 37 0 0
OW 0 107 15 204 254 66 0 0
VODI 0 7 2 119 453 403 21 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 325 837 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 160 622 357 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 757 1861 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 90 1341 37 296 402 146 0 0
OW 0 140 11 84 64 445 0 0
VODI 0 39 7 110 213 412 39 0
ODI 0 0 2 53 212 235 140 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 218 431 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 175 1053 1901 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15610 3538 42 112 8 0 0 0
OW 0 24 7 149 70 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 0 34 401 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 152 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15610 3492 32 139 53 0 0 0
OW 0 49 15 113 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 2 43 367 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 0 140 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0


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