Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-11-30

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2685 5882 81 569 288 160 0 0
OW 46 536 55 417 367 261 0 0
VODI 0 104 21 407 646 471 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 119 539 347 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 364 463 58 1
VCDI 0 0 0 3 263 2581 10860 17256
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2177 5674 57 603 271 41 6 0
OW 67 558 33 359 325 232 90 0
VODI 7 320 32 303 452 540 77 0
ODI 0 56 15 186 590 515 10 0
CDI 0 4 2 76 427 503 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 249 1926 9876 19186
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 922 6633 99 542 180 14 0 0
OW 10 344 51 543 376 55 0 0
VODI 1 72 18 321 658 191 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 61 597 735 146 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 259 1456 276 5
VCDI 0 0 0 6 147 1832 10754 18541
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 863 5444 93 585 332 39 0 0
OW 4 401 41 482 502 96 0 0
VODI 0 127 19 308 597 284 11 0
ODI 0 6 2 63 517 401 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 285 888 714 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 93 2315 11716 18598
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 863 5317 86 520 358 23 0 0
OW 4 495 28 431 358 66 0 0
VODI 0 162 41 415 605 279 5 0
ODI 0 4 0 69 557 416 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 332 835 442 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 2404 11996 18598

Date: 2017-12-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 374 4649 77 556 354 176 0 0
OW 0 435 51 455 447 287 8 0
VODI 0 83 18 349 657 288 77 0
ODI 0 32 6 108 541 384 109 0
CDI 0 6 1 4 356 817 208 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 137 2566 10923 20324
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 374 4570 78 609 429 224 0 0
OW 0 436 33 293 335 243 4 0
VODI 0 158 33 379 557 275 73 0
ODI 0 27 7 177 559 313 104 0
CDI 0 14 2 14 472 793 179 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 2670 10965 20326

Date: 2017-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 200 4972 81 371 59 37 0 0
OW 0 261 62 571 353 66 0 0
VODI 0 30 6 262 881 436 21 0
ODI 0 1 1 81 611 1018 64 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 200 1028 399 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 1974 9621 22150
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 185 4382 67 448 500 146 0 0
OW 15 557 39 224 156 450 0 0
VODI 0 252 30 335 367 449 39 0
ODI 0 68 11 181 468 312 141 0
CDI 0 5 3 82 427 668 246 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 223 2534 9679 22154

Date: 2017-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 411 4386 60 255 29 0 0 0
OW 0 572 61 577 183 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 14 331 1147 77 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 80 869 380 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 527 787 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 234 3398 8237 23120
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 398 4046 68 493 169 0 0 0
OW 13 728 34 213 495 19 0 0
VODI 0 215 29 291 747 128 6 0
ODI 0 4 4 205 700 193 13 0
CDI 0 1 0 48 415 614 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 38 463 3688 8203 23120

Date: 2017-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 3524 59 338 110 9 0 0
OW 0 626 32 367 304 107 0 0
VODI 0 68 22 327 413 385 1 0
ODI 0 2 0 46 364 752 83 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 331 1227 138 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 361 4150 9486 21952
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 215 3140 56 301 164 131 0 0
OW 0 816 31 325 325 267 0 0
VODI 0 243 19 202 283 652 4 0
ODI 0 20 7 222 336 549 17 0
CDI 0 1 0 66 323 762 153 10
VCDI 0 0 0 29 452 4269 9534 21942


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