Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-11-23

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 443 16 105 52 0 0 0
OW 0 8 5 47 65 6 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 36 86 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 86 108 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 261 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1368 10634 23451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 435 18 104 41 3 0 0
OW 0 14 4 54 71 26 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 32 89 50 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 71 65 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 53 181 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1452 10615 23451

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 25 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 220 1572 1277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 3 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 247 1574 1277

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 30 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 77 2068 7765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 27 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 80 2073 7765

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 351 3529 40 134 1 0 0 0
OW 1 105 21 152 84 6 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 103 113 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 90 44 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 75 113 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 224 343 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 351 2996 26 69 1 0 0 0
OW 1 354 11 97 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 244 12 108 96 17 0 0
ODI 0 38 12 89 79 35 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 48 117 73 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 96 295 336 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 103 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 62 12 40 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 64 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 109 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 181 58 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 499 2968 3026
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 31 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 39 10 51 0 0 0 1
CDI 0 8 5 58 88 33 54 25
VCDI 0 0 0 4 111 658 2972 3011

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 57 1204 4036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 48 1198 4036

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 743 19 75 20 0 0 0
OW 0 53 9 52 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 36 5 51 85 20 0 0
ODI 0 21 2 28 117 64 0 0
CDI 0 9 6 65 178 217 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 93 622 2609 1061
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 453 13 58 34 0 0 0
OW 0 131 2 18 21 4 0 0
VODI 0 90 10 39 34 14 0 0
ODI 0 53 3 44 59 45 0 0
CDI 0 45 4 30 159 145 4 0
VCDI 0 90 9 84 240 715 2620 1061

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7031 3168 50 204 28 0 0 0
OW 0 34 10 162 105 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 0 72 218 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 41 97 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 62 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 14 12 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7031 3160 51 264 52 0 0 0
OW 0 36 4 106 101 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 5 52 148 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 80 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 10 86 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 42 13 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6819 2576 24 121 57 21 0 0
OW 0 17 13 85 38 14 9 0
VODI 0 0 1 67 84 10 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 92 40 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 85 190 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 259 989 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6819 2538 21 122 54 31 11 0
OW 0 51 9 58 51 13 24 0
VODI 0 4 8 71 67 28 11 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 66 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 97 118 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 278 990 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9808 2384 28 306 249 178 34 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9808 2384 28 306 249 178 34 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 967 14 70 0 0 0 0
OW 0 74 19 89 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 5 130 170 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 293 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 76 259 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 65 549 2793 131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 945 16 52 3 0 0 0
OW 0 68 14 114 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 34 3 95 151 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 17 164 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 133 93 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 157 721 2792 131

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 839 2457 48 460 190 0 0 0
OW 7 199 20 324 298 27 0 0
VODI 0 21 9 166 549 168 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 453 1180 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 747 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 136 35 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 844 2515 56 513 444 214 2 0
OW 2 155 18 271 157 270 6 0
VODI 0 7 3 139 313 507 82 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 392 466 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 241 493 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 308 35 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16503 3166 12 47 10 0 0 0
OW 2 176 10 67 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 95 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16503 3224 15 70 12 0 0 0
OW 2 94 9 110 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 1 30 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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