Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-11-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85053 10104 93 719 485 33 0 0
OW 24 280 21 213 154 4 0 0
VODI 0 101 17 239 262 35 0 0
ODI 0 3 5 174 398 106 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 57 304 418 141 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 195 3434 5023 996
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84237 10551 109 666 350 66 0 0
OW 28 295 10 180 228 5 0 0
VODI 0 159 23 173 322 20 0 0
ODI 0 7 11 125 349 44 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 67 464 241 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 281 3157 5523 1405
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83791 11339 131 672 308 46 0 0
OW 25 105 19 276 262 28 0 0
VODI 0 21 11 153 327 66 5 0
ODI 0 0 1 50 332 83 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 492 235 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 172 2105 4729 3256
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83877 11347 104 506 260 42 0 0
OW 28 223 37 316 162 27 0 0
VODI 0 23 19 256 299 52 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 349 60 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 543 178 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 322 1758 7639 495
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83877 11331 99 502 276 59 0 0
OW 28 235 43 302 145 16 0 0
VODI 0 27 18 267 283 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 341 53 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 566 191 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 324 1747 7635 495

Date: 2017-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82330 12137 133 810 259 177 22 0
OW 29 289 34 384 200 17 9 0
VODI 0 52 18 254 365 59 1 0
ODI 0 10 4 73 367 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 39 459 295 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 350 1396 7508 874
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82330 12140 136 840 286 180 26 0
OW 29 277 33 339 187 21 6 0
VODI 0 62 16 267 342 58 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 77 359 88 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 34 435 277 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 391 1413 7487 874

Date: 2017-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81985 11678 136 819 396 199 34 0
OW 29 285 52 430 229 21 9 0
VODI 0 19 11 371 550 51 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 508 204 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 180 653 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 66 1638 7034 1371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81985 11733 146 905 404 209 45 0
OW 29 198 35 416 259 30 24 0
VODI 0 44 13 249 466 65 12 0
ODI 0 7 5 61 350 175 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 283 382 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 167 1905 7034 1371

Date: 2017-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81579 11917 115 757 506 195 0 0
OW 31 403 41 361 241 50 0 0
VODI 0 81 28 285 513 150 0 0
ODI 0 14 2 66 340 250 0 0
CDI 0 2 4 43 230 445 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 183 1873 6673 1694
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81579 11926 113 900 634 214 0 0
OW 31 321 38 227 260 91 0 0
VODI 0 103 27 219 311 199 2 0
ODI 0 26 6 91 227 230 22 0
CDI 0 28 1 34 234 281 32 13
VCDI 0 13 5 55 347 1948 6631 1681

Date: 2017-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81617 11790 103 620 535 38 0 0
OW 34 472 57 428 214 25 0 0
VODI 0 103 20 331 475 145 0 0
ODI 0 20 8 98 391 184 6 0
CDI 0 4 3 73 294 421 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 195 1883 7064 1427
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81616 11905 115 742 655 56 0 0
OW 35 311 37 336 260 93 2 0
VODI 0 110 27 271 366 224 10 0
ODI 0 36 5 111 259 226 26 0
CDI 0 21 4 56 261 362 87 0
VCDI 0 6 3 41 303 1735 6960 1427


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