Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-11-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4309 6299 69 271 18 0 0 0
OW 28 648 67 415 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 281 28 432 502 37 0 0
ODI 0 69 11 153 562 224 1 0
CDI 0 9 2 43 575 650 47 18
VCDI 0 0 0 1 218 2651 8206 18881
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4208 5895 63 272 64 0 0 0
OW 41 919 62 305 182 10 0 0
VODI 4 546 43 353 270 48 0 0
ODI 0 222 17 227 316 140 0 0
CDI 0 38 15 133 346 446 22 0
VCDI 0 0 1 98 405 2448 8405 19302
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3170 7812 81 236 22 0 0 0
OW 21 677 66 467 114 0 0 0
VODI 0 166 51 459 312 7 0 0
ODI 0 12 6 238 446 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 519 253 35 8
VCDI 0 0 0 7 371 2108 7494 20582
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3174 6212 87 439 409 0 0 0
OW 25 684 38 379 538 82 0 0
VODI 0 229 27 329 730 132 0 0
ODI 0 11 7 130 502 165 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 337 423 54 4
VCDI 0 0 0 16 382 3005 10982 16287
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3159 6430 94 503 539 11 0 0
OW 40 495 33 316 400 112 0 0
VODI 0 191 23 306 678 87 0 0
ODI 0 20 9 150 528 151 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 329 416 60 3
VCDI 0 0 0 15 424 3030 10976 16288

Date: 2017-11-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2360 5571 70 714 330 130 5 0
OW 72 542 36 373 346 317 5 0
VODI 2 230 20 335 515 655 0 0
ODI 0 43 8 168 534 349 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 447 392 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 195 2444 10624 17981
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2354 5618 75 750 400 198 10 0
OW 76 450 31 391 285 305 0 0
VODI 4 253 18 229 476 563 0 0
ODI 0 58 7 172 499 379 1 0
CDI 0 7 3 89 451 375 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 256 2467 10615 17981

Date: 2017-11-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1197 6729 94 599 192 0 0 0
OW 10 385 54 520 393 33 0 0
VODI 0 28 10 344 741 208 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 651 1259 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 207 1009 137 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 1225 9224 20444
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1202 6099 83 587 453 217 2 0
OW 5 584 31 375 200 280 6 0
VODI 0 366 16 255 440 545 82 0
ODI 0 77 22 165 504 520 91 0
CDI 0 16 6 104 430 630 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 230 1542 9204 20444

Date: 2017-11-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1050 6064 85 542 193 4 0 0
OW 6 411 50 529 393 48 0 0
VODI 0 96 19 351 581 187 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 81 547 391 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 375 989 937 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 2964 10050 18728
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1051 5370 64 518 451 164 9 0
OW 5 641 36 387 233 146 111 0
VODI 0 385 22 315 483 251 320 0
ODI 0 134 20 134 373 339 489 0
CDI 0 45 13 108 387 744 265 9
VCDI 0 2 0 46 302 2939 9825 18730

Date: 2017-12-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 506 5112 90 548 341 85 0 0
OW 6 452 43 372 620 82 2 0
VODI 0 142 20 255 738 308 46 0
ODI 0 16 5 73 506 398 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 268 960 270 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 2425 11282 19733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 512 4679 80 578 723 206 60 0
OW 0 558 30 193 383 168 54 0
VODI 0 337 18 235 528 285 283 0
ODI 0 117 24 121 428 324 520 0
CDI 0 30 6 96 270 910 604 10
VCDI 0 1 0 29 232 2365 10146 19723


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