Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-11-16

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 578 14 112 77 5 0 0
OW 0 17 5 60 59 17 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 73 165 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 395 96 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 194 291 42 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 2091 7833 24702
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 540 9 94 69 14 0 0
OW 0 44 4 30 72 13 0 0
VODI 0 14 6 52 91 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 63 122 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 373 117 28 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 188 2287 7847 24702

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 7 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 373 1054 1682
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 7 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 373 1052 1682

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 25 3 19 16 0 0 0
OW 0 3 3 6 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 11 25 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 31 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 31 190 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 272 2858 6386
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 17 2 12 20 0 0 0
OW 0 6 1 7 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 3 5 23 3 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 9 9 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 20 37 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 6 41 456 2862 6385

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 678 3385 36 122 23 0 0 0
OW 21 77 20 162 70 2 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 81 171 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 162 131 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 259 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 43 113 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 678 3260 34 139 55 0 0 0
OW 21 150 12 68 68 14 0 0
VODI 0 51 11 105 77 45 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 57 95 67 1 0
CDI 0 0 1 1 126 117 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 235 137 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 93 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 9 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 5 115 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 192 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 345 11 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 732 3504 2019
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 2 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 5 23 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 7 48 19 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 109 47 3 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 1077 3512 2024

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 42 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 197 2203 2847
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 36 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 212 2204 2847

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1355 7 30 9 0 0 0
OW 0 183 14 86 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 15 119 66 9 0 0
ODI 0 17 8 97 240 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 181 230 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 1174 2156 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1148 5 16 3 0 0 0
OW 0 139 3 13 26 2 0 0
VODI 0 227 7 40 17 8 0 0
ODI 0 117 13 110 107 20 0 0
CDI 0 56 16 117 209 95 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 55 236 1326 2185 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8161 2783 24 99 29 0 0 0
OW 0 42 11 53 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 23 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8160 2578 18 72 54 0 0 0
OW 1 132 2 19 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 11 32 6 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 4 33 3 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 21 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 40 1 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7147 2513 14 121 56 27 0 0
OW 0 61 2 51 31 11 0 0
VODI 0 11 10 49 78 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 63 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 74 60 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 772 384 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7147 2432 12 82 66 40 0 0
OW 0 78 2 62 22 28 0 0
VODI 0 57 1 33 47 11 0 0
ODI 0 18 10 34 42 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 41 58 35 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 127 795 385 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10683 2103 16 95 91 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10683 2103 16 95 91 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 948 19 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 8 110 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 33 127 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 108 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 62 254 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 696 2819 461
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 830 7 43 3 0 0 0
OW 0 81 5 28 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 9 61 44 1 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 53 47 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 105 45 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 932 2799 461

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1829 3848 61 225 15 0 0 0
OW 0 579 54 415 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 24 281 199 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 87 156 5 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 30 136 32 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 0 218 198 13 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1829 3398 52 175 41 0 0 0
OW 0 403 35 254 79 0 0 0
VODI 0 259 24 267 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 289 16 164 120 1 0 0
CDI 0 151 8 114 125 25 0 0
VCDI 0 22 8 64 317 209 13 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16357 3257 29 173 41 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 58 139 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 41 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 16357 3256 27 169 101 0 0 0
OW 0 1 3 49 84 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 47 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 0 0 0


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