Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2017-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 250 2167 38 106 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 11 329 341 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 94 1054 488 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 250 497 73 9
CDI 0 0 0 18 183 792 269 25
VCDI 0 0 0 7 128 1626 7706 15505
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 361 1899 4 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 318 27 169 65 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 12 115 321 554 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 37 182 683 287 1
CDI 0 0 0 3 119 392 446 41
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 817 6414 18677
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 505 2201 24 106 2 0 0 0
OW 0 69 19 135 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 6 111 166 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 52 249 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 157 1636 252 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 1590 6350 18183
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 564 1701 6 14 2 0 0 0
OW 2 392 3 38 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 246 20 79 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 16 168 81 31 2 6
CDI 0 1 0 107 247 527 87 21
VCDI 0 0 0 25 414 3749 9350 14086
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 562 1778 7 18 4 0 0 0
OW 3 349 3 44 8 0 0 0
VODI 1 217 24 88 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 42 11 160 93 28 2 4
CDI 0 3 0 92 220 256 31 22
VCDI 0 0 0 29 427 4023 9406 14087

Date: 2017-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 281 1591 4 17 9 0 0 0
OW 0 321 2 12 9 1 0 0
VODI 0 304 15 94 54 5 0 0
ODI 0 135 7 83 165 12 0 0
CDI 0 36 9 127 221 123 39 21
VCDI 0 0 2 68 384 3462 9311 15158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 281 1683 4 20 11 1 0 0
OW 0 257 2 9 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 314 12 74 74 7 0 0
ODI 0 94 14 129 139 13 1 0
CDI 0 33 4 114 221 104 47 17
VCDI 0 6 3 55 387 3478 9302 15162

Date: 2017-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42 1831 11 41 9 0 0 0
OW 0 212 22 112 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 17 177 78 9 0 0
ODI 0 17 8 102 380 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 249 487 78 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 2467 10048 15339
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 42 1566 7 21 3 0 0 0
OW 0 179 4 15 26 2 0 0
VODI 0 272 12 46 18 8 0 0
ODI 0 119 19 143 107 22 0 0
CDI 0 56 16 170 293 146 40 14
VCDI 0 0 0 56 393 2837 10086 15344

Date: 2017-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15 1341 17 48 4 0 0 0
OW 0 201 9 76 34 1 0 0
VODI 0 153 5 121 76 7 0 0
ODI 0 94 15 94 156 20 4 0
CDI 0 15 10 148 329 245 48 4
VCDI 0 0 0 54 330 3505 11485 13418
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15 1267 16 58 1 0 0 0
OW 0 154 4 30 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 152 7 85 51 8 0 0
ODI 0 92 0 74 128 27 0 0
CDI 0 86 14 51 196 192 22 4
VCDI 0 53 15 243 537 3551 11515 13418

Date: 2017-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 1019 18 47 0 0 0 0
OW 0 200 5 68 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 134 2 53 71 2 0 0
ODI 0 51 11 40 174 42 0 0
CDI 0 41 5 82 239 164 31 7
VCDI 0 13 8 217 278 2106 9951 16977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 1087 10 58 21 0 0 0
OW 0 156 14 39 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 106 2 78 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 49 8 38 150 54 0 0
CDI 0 36 6 57 135 168 14 3
VCDI 0 24 9 237 389 2092 9968 16981


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