Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92102 19613 159 1010 486 58 0 0
OW 46 841 93 1087 1092 104 0 0
VODI 2 161 49 802 2199 799 29 0
ODI 0 9 3 224 1085 1089 114 9
CDI 0 0 1 71 794 2053 529 25
VCDI 0 0 0 21 540 7276 21517 30956
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91329 19353 107 773 261 135 7 0
OW 44 1349 97 827 608 129 0 0
VODI 0 405 71 645 1478 1001 0 0
ODI 0 121 16 328 751 1330 296 1
CDI 0 12 2 165 751 1494 596 56
VCDI 0 0 0 39 819 6555 19162 35935
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90904 19730 201 1209 241 52 0 0
OW 42 630 72 788 603 16 0 0
VODI 0 204 36 577 1175 356 0 0
ODI 0 23 6 267 1113 1128 2 0
CDI 0 0 1 66 545 3178 402 10
VCDI 0 0 0 4 347 5787 22221 35112
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90861 17914 201 1044 431 32 0 0
OW 74 1074 72 711 351 16 0 0
VODI 9 541 64 718 987 96 0 0
ODI 0 70 31 457 1098 537 50 6
CDI 0 1 0 206 1091 1744 188 42
VCDI 0 0 0 28 820 9177 23415 32891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90855 18029 201 1079 542 49 0 0
OW 72 985 70 624 310 27 0 0
VODI 17 517 69 795 953 101 0 0
ODI 0 66 28 466 973 397 68 4
CDI 0 3 0 168 1105 1429 112 47
VCDI 0 0 0 32 895 9599 23473 32888

Date: 2017-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88517 18611 184 1006 545 62 0 0
OW 52 1497 68 474 330 18 0 0
VODI 0 916 77 585 687 93 0 0
ODI 0 280 37 488 872 316 0 0
CDI 0 47 13 323 1028 878 136 25
VCDI 0 1 3 113 1064 9103 22406 36193
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88521 18894 185 1026 546 54 0 0
OW 48 1192 59 454 407 29 0 0
VODI 0 927 75 548 623 80 0 0
ODI 0 271 52 485 830 329 2 0
CDI 0 61 7 367 951 722 141 17
VCDI 0 7 4 109 1169 9256 22399 36201

Date: 2017-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86690 20888 223 1060 357 32 0 0
OW 46 1031 127 1019 484 30 0 0
VODI 0 237 59 790 955 122 0 0
ODI 0 34 12 256 1405 443 3 0
CDI 0 1 0 62 756 1710 162 20
VCDI 0 1 0 0 450 6549 22937 38097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86686 19581 182 897 503 54 0 0
OW 50 1094 69 535 393 57 0 0
VODI 0 826 77 636 480 110 0 0
ODI 0 462 59 571 604 201 1 0
CDI 0 207 26 405 1177 561 105 16
VCDI 0 22 8 143 1250 7903 22996 38101

Date: 2017-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88224 18689 197 1094 467 41 0 0
OW 49 1070 100 763 592 30 0 0
VODI 1 441 46 689 844 57 4 0
ODI 0 114 26 353 950 130 20 0
CDI 0 15 11 266 1231 701 142 5
VCDI 0 0 0 91 1057 8136 26042 34360
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88217 17382 161 878 587 62 0 0
OW 56 1172 53 401 316 48 0 0
VODI 1 907 61 578 616 76 6 0
ODI 0 492 33 523 718 135 17 0
CDI 0 305 46 389 916 452 120 23
VCDI 0 71 26 487 1988 8322 26065 34342

Date: 2017-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86506 18013 209 1164 576 265 0 0
OW 74 922 95 899 607 282 1 0
VODI 0 289 38 699 1082 527 0 0
ODI 0 56 16 241 1063 459 3 0
CDI 0 41 5 122 1058 916 171 8
VCDI 0 13 8 220 951 6154 28354 34941
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86514 17436 164 982 805 511 1 0
OW 63 879 71 558 306 220 0 0
VODI 3 615 49 621 727 374 0 0
ODI 0 258 45 406 813 470 10 0
CDI 0 110 26 387 880 633 122 4
VCDI 0 36 16 391 1806 6395 28396 34945


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