Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-11-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97453 20192 210 953 539 155 0 0
OW 59 1518 158 1131 441 107 0 0
VODI 12 241 46 880 1043 241 1 0
ODI 0 18 8 271 1084 537 7 4
CDI 0 5 0 93 881 1480 146 29
VCDI 0 0 1 22 654 9993 18915 27520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96188 18628 197 1228 721 274 0 0
OW 51 1631 128 1282 586 185 3 0
VODI 13 591 80 952 1049 355 23 0
ODI 1 44 15 323 845 687 41 0
CDI 0 16 6 113 773 1423 182 12
VCDI 0 0 0 54 548 7474 20813 29513
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96661 17833 213 1377 862 33 0 0
OW 49 717 126 1382 736 136 0 0
VODI 16 139 19 819 1799 383 0 0
ODI 0 15 1 109 1588 835 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 683 1879 158 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 243 8402 23406 26404
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92344 19978 194 1131 699 2 0 0
OW 35 877 100 1352 1187 81 0 0
VODI 0 174 49 967 1850 632 5 0
ODI 0 28 4 229 1483 863 118 0
CDI 0 9 3 82 665 2091 403 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 417 8355 26305 24284
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92329 20114 210 1248 835 14 0 0
OW 49 712 90 1132 984 105 0 0
VODI 1 209 43 1067 1828 591 13 0
ODI 0 23 4 233 1496 883 115 0
CDI 0 8 3 91 741 2047 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 42 417 8384 26308 24284

Date: 2017-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92656 18470 136 787 369 142 0 0
OW 56 1002 102 1004 699 231 0 0
VODI 3 311 48 706 1752 1196 8 0
ODI 0 54 10 241 895 1168 227 1
CDI 0 0 1 98 885 1590 640 37
VCDI 0 0 0 16 592 6664 22103 32148
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92644 18295 135 845 396 169 0 0
OW 65 1174 103 767 547 148 0 0
VODI 6 303 45 868 1638 1164 15 0
ODI 0 65 13 267 1181 1158 189 5
CDI 0 0 1 86 829 1538 676 37
VCDI 0 0 0 19 601 6814 22098 32144

Date: 2017-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91447 19743 212 950 253 50 0 0
OW 40 546 85 1037 610 35 0 0
VODI 0 136 30 654 1438 413 0 0
ODI 0 8 8 220 1090 1755 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 452 2803 1477 8
VCDI 0 0 0 2 456 5218 19015 36756
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91445 18606 136 759 347 115 0 0
OW 42 1295 99 662 537 66 0 0
VODI 0 388 56 781 1110 545 0 0
ODI 0 129 35 440 919 1722 165 0
CDI 0 15 9 224 569 1511 671 55
VCDI 0 0 0 46 817 6315 19708 36709

Date: 2017-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92627 17211 180 1237 230 25 0 0
OW 114 905 81 753 368 8 0 0
VODI 24 341 60 712 1104 152 6 0
ODI 0 52 26 348 1059 791 34 0
CDI 0 2 2 137 938 2380 110 54
VCDI 0 0 0 9 537 7718 23028 33685
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92627 16060 139 694 169 40 0 0
OW 122 1346 63 823 403 118 0 0
VODI 16 776 74 797 914 355 8 0
ODI 0 237 48 473 994 1227 52 0
CDI 0 73 21 293 883 1792 277 47
VCDI 0 19 4 116 873 7542 22841 33692

Date: 2017-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89715 18108 167 1006 510 33 0 0
OW 52 1289 94 654 304 4 0 0
VODI 0 636 59 838 795 73 0 0
ODI 0 195 24 412 1058 359 3 0
CDI 0 55 9 199 1096 1263 247 41
VCDI 0 0 0 68 759 9402 22948 34573
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89666 17265 157 855 327 54 0 0
OW 87 1296 52 582 469 58 7 0
VODI 14 999 62 650 946 521 109 0
ODI 0 414 52 548 713 902 140 9
CDI 0 207 18 348 924 1352 498 105
VCDI 0 102 12 194 1143 8247 22444 34500


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