Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2017-11-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1466 4037 48 243 18 0 0 0
OW 0 273 58 500 308 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 142 544 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 279 387 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 1080 300 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 2030 8769 11435
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1692 3384 36 141 11 0 0 0
OW 0 665 54 388 166 1 0 0
VODI 0 42 17 306 423 131 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 29 387 195 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 129 618 139 17
VCDI 0 0 0 4 77 2340 7670 12996
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1966 3332 46 152 9 0 0 0
OW 0 351 54 390 98 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 12 247 501 20 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 27 361 406 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 92 636 134 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 91 2063 6459 14541
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1230 3834 43 100 0 0 0 0
OW 0 425 55 412 146 0 0 0
VODI 0 80 20 337 386 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 462 168 6 3
CDI 0 0 0 15 241 565 61 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 2113 8178 12930
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1230 4008 69 299 74 0 0 0
OW 0 238 32 230 177 2 0 0
VODI 0 93 17 309 275 76 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 93 413 146 14 1
CDI 0 0 0 10 284 536 56 34
VCDI 0 0 0 0 126 2132 8175 12933

Date: 2017-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1057 3285 19 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 688 55 498 127 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 20 380 438 68 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 84 454 158 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 315 534 152 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 81 1980 8312 13166
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1057 3621 44 322 74 0 0 0
OW 0 349 35 306 150 1 0 0
VODI 0 68 14 327 387 47 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 93 415 150 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 305 461 126 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 2081 8354 13166

Date: 2017-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 990 3436 43 124 1 0 0 0
OW 0 356 51 580 135 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 314 803 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 549 216 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 144 591 46 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 1309 9757 12550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 990 3251 40 204 13 0 0 0
OW 0 366 26 322 192 5 0 0
VODI 0 156 27 359 503 24 0 0
ODI 0 21 6 121 429 168 10 1
CDI 0 0 0 13 382 429 103 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 1508 9690 12546

Date: 2017-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 559 2505 45 221 1 0 0 0
OW 0 239 37 692 568 35 0 0
VODI 0 8 5 216 728 161 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 504 368 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 209 675 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 131 2915 11276 9786
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 559 2487 57 280 24 0 0 0
OW 0 92 8 401 364 24 0 0
VODI 0 61 8 234 664 234 0 0
ODI 0 65 5 151 429 317 30 0
CDI 0 44 6 41 336 680 229 1
VCDI 0 3 3 32 324 2899 11205 9785

Date: 2017-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 250 2167 38 106 0 0 0 0
OW 0 48 11 329 341 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 94 1054 488 29 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 250 497 73 9
CDI 0 0 0 18 183 792 269 25
VCDI 0 0 0 7 128 1626 7706 15505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 250 2196 48 282 291 0 0 0
OW 0 23 1 123 412 65 0 0
VODI 0 6 0 19 499 330 20 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 397 567 34 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 234 598 318 0
VCDI 0 0 0 128 123 1843 7705 15539


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