Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-11-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101117 20104 217 1304 457 102 0 0
OW 17 843 129 1163 699 133 4 0
VODI 11 133 26 578 1353 387 30 0
ODI 2 5 0 109 947 851 102 0
CDI 0 0 1 21 529 2227 414 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 221 6299 18140 28372
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101109 18506 190 1071 603 95 0 0
OW 16 1538 130 884 413 286 0 0
VODI 4 311 58 886 875 453 13 0
ODI 0 97 14 207 801 578 71 0
CDI 0 51 6 127 618 1344 345 18
VCDI 0 2 1 93 609 7888 16588 30149
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101197 18595 244 1157 628 126 3 0
OW 18 709 122 1054 482 85 13 0
VODI 0 122 27 635 1271 240 40 0
ODI 0 16 2 130 1017 959 64 0
CDI 0 18 2 48 463 1538 314 18
VCDI 0 9 2 49 392 7114 17210 30915
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98515 19791 234 1125 600 159 0 0
OW 45 993 137 1181 568 81 0 0
VODI 4 199 53 874 1092 181 0 0
ODI 0 27 6 232 1242 462 8 3
CDI 0 5 1 143 879 1380 110 35
VCDI 0 0 0 66 645 9294 18457 28221
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98521 20013 270 1353 731 148 0 0
OW 38 721 102 947 568 80 0 0
VODI 5 243 52 857 954 225 0 0
ODI 0 33 5 238 1098 450 16 1
CDI 0 5 2 133 963 1370 105 34
VCDI 0 0 0 93 712 9284 18454 28224

Date: 2017-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96165 20097 206 1126 630 188 0 0
OW 48 1623 135 1168 503 165 0 0
VODI 22 411 57 873 940 392 10 0
ODI 0 37 7 255 963 603 50 0
CDI 0 6 4 110 836 1502 223 20
VCDI 0 0 0 68 561 9233 19000 28811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96153 20663 238 1425 715 180 0 0
OW 60 1071 103 899 486 165 0 0
VODI 21 388 54 824 929 379 5 0
ODI 1 45 8 264 897 618 34 0
CDI 0 7 6 108 764 1315 191 20
VCDI 0 0 0 80 642 9426 19053 28811

Date: 2017-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95849 19010 225 1402 769 131 0 0
OW 44 726 151 1513 672 170 0 0
VODI 8 130 40 1050 2006 473 4 0
ODI 0 0 1 89 1241 828 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 555 2056 131 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 5923 22992 28693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95813 18167 218 1572 1060 346 0 0
OW 60 1040 79 854 642 179 3 0
VODI 26 523 81 983 1265 390 16 0
ODI 2 125 32 482 884 672 38 1
CDI 0 11 7 147 876 1196 196 23
VCDI 0 0 0 32 630 6798 22890 28689

Date: 2017-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96655 16758 179 1193 780 0 0 0
OW 73 900 110 1362 1241 80 0 0
VODI 24 192 26 746 1756 331 0 0
ODI 2 21 2 149 1609 935 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 753 1984 224 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 433 9821 22583 26059
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96638 15918 179 1353 1150 153 0 0
OW 83 970 37 825 857 196 0 0
VODI 33 658 61 707 1453 573 10 0
ODI 0 239 19 337 1108 768 82 0
CDI 0 83 18 172 1018 1392 415 1
VCDI 0 3 3 71 986 10069 22352 26058

Date: 2017-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92102 19613 159 1010 486 58 0 0
OW 46 841 93 1087 1092 104 0 0
VODI 2 161 49 802 2199 799 29 0
ODI 0 9 3 224 1085 1089 114 9
CDI 0 0 1 71 794 2053 529 25
VCDI 0 0 0 21 540 7276 21517 30956
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92107 19072 161 1239 1390 339 0 0
OW 43 894 51 589 898 303 25 0
VODI 0 504 62 722 1329 711 69 0
ODI 0 128 25 299 924 1073 165 0
CDI 0 20 3 160 879 1296 548 0
VCDI 0 6 3 206 776 7657 21382 30990


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