Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-10-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-30

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 752 23 97 8 0 0 0
OW 0 68 6 128 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 6 152 132 21 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 44 228 115 0 0
CDI 0 7 1 30 140 302 36 0
VCDI 0 1 1 44 229 4187 7592 22463
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 558 12 69 9 0 0 0
OW 0 77 4 82 45 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 9 103 122 53 0 0
ODI 0 61 7 72 98 108 1 0
CDI 0 35 4 69 162 121 51 0
VCDI 0 14 3 100 349 4343 7576 22463

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 235 3 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 1 11 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 196 17 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 208 1401 993
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 240 4 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 72 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 344 1418 994

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1682 49 148 36 1 0 0
OW 0 121 31 276 69 16 0 0
VODI 0 25 7 150 151 58 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 126 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 116 153 49 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 827 3116 2608
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1434 34 97 53 10 0 0
OW 0 253 28 181 27 31 0 0
VODI 0 125 18 230 77 50 0 0
ODI 0 16 5 48 89 51 9 0
CDI 0 0 2 50 120 73 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 179 919 3120 2610

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2438 2514 21 94 66 2 0 0
OW 4 51 19 58 28 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 86 54 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 57 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 67 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2436 2503 19 100 67 5 0 0
OW 6 55 15 37 35 8 0 0
VODI 0 7 6 93 44 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 44 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 61 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 688 13 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 346 41 298 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 8 230 412 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 259 466 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 323 238 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 208 3067 558
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 740 34 305 97 0 0 0
OW 0 275 16 151 198 100 0 0
VODI 0 23 12 91 202 141 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 156 212 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 322 99 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 232 3209 570

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 26 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 102 1364 3828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 103 1385 3833

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1774 2433 34 90 14 0 0 0
OW 0 87 8 166 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 6 40 217 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 126 155 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 365 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 415 236 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1774 2352 22 97 26 0 0 0
OW 0 117 9 65 65 2 0 0
VODI 0 59 12 94 105 37 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 25 130 46 2 0
CDI 0 7 1 15 87 216 17 0
VCDI 0 2 0 8 40 644 230 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8918 2191 25 77 34 0 0 0
OW 0 0 5 32 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8918 2090 23 66 24 0 0 0
OW 0 87 6 24 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 1 23 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7446 2434 26 309 201 0 0 0
OW 0 24 3 19 80 5 0 0
VODI 0 13 2 13 59 75 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 13 28 139 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 4 14 154 0 0
VCDI 0 1 0 6 17 537 67 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7446 2367 24 304 188 0 0 0
OW 0 45 0 13 78 10 0 0
VODI 0 34 4 12 65 52 0 0
ODI 0 17 4 10 21 109 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 15 24 143 0 0
VCDI 0 4 1 10 23 596 67 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1583 1661 28 279 220 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 152 139 21 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 120 245 118 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 267 245 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 97 227 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 312 46 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1583 1591 22 312 378 74 0 0
OW 0 65 5 125 89 148 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 88 192 147 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 88 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 112 54 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 141 441 46 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5570 2812 20 104 18 0 0 0
OW 2 0 0 16 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5566 2786 15 86 16 0 0 0
OW 6 26 5 32 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19994 194 1 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 9 2 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19994 188 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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