Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106192 19904 211 923 604 103 0 0
OW 7 971 87 829 564 224 0 0
VODI 0 421 50 657 1323 771 12 0
ODI 0 61 13 192 1015 1704 120 0
CDI 0 6 8 98 785 2586 1007 2
VCDI 0 0 0 22 464 6547 21524 17041
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105254 19381 202 898 587 186 0 0
OW 10 988 85 747 468 188 0 0
VODI 0 349 64 815 1157 667 13 0
ODI 0 26 10 202 1037 1193 102 0
CDI 0 20 1 46 902 1818 973 32
VCDI 0 7 5 36 352 7787 18739 21701
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105905 18993 248 1122 406 62 9 0
OW 40 489 89 945 537 145 75 0
VODI 0 57 23 580 1129 278 120 0
ODI 0 0 0 167 1347 929 130 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 491 2436 428 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 162 8733 17202 23761
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104020 18522 250 1304 471 85 0 0
OW 14 603 130 1048 630 141 24 0
VODI 0 82 15 515 1406 331 116 0
ODI 0 3 1 66 960 940 111 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 426 2445 448 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 116 6283 19591 25943
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104017 18631 268 1552 605 88 0 0
OW 17 509 111 850 550 104 5 0
VODI 0 67 16 465 1332 373 144 0
ODI 0 3 1 62 955 895 102 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 444 2161 445 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 6604 19594 25941

Date: 2017-10-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102027 18529 181 979 554 92 0 0
OW 14 1308 147 989 535 197 0 0
VODI 0 174 42 846 1068 369 5 0
ODI 1 32 9 214 867 662 13 0
CDI 0 4 2 113 590 1950 345 1
VCDI 0 0 0 11 488 7410 17521 28759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102025 18945 224 1370 615 123 0 0
OW 16 821 90 723 585 174 0 0
VODI 0 257 57 730 1006 398 4 0
ODI 1 17 8 212 817 677 15 0
CDI 0 5 0 100 553 1668 353 1
VCDI 0 2 2 17 526 7640 17512 28759

Date: 2017-10-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102565 17596 243 1262 597 3 0 0
OW 12 713 116 1160 462 46 0 0
VODI 0 113 29 800 1298 319 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 103 1116 1274 5 0
CDI 0 8 2 44 429 1791 377 20
VCDI 0 2 1 50 332 6808 16889 30450
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102558 16849 209 1482 858 89 0 0
OW 19 1013 90 712 565 299 0 0
VODI 0 393 64 742 833 519 0 0
ODI 0 115 20 194 655 629 12 0
CDI 0 52 7 161 590 1064 208 0
VCDI 0 20 4 128 733 7641 17051 30470

Date: 2017-11-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98466 20724 256 1083 589 127 0 0
OW 26 941 132 1001 522 85 0 0
VODI 0 191 46 738 1062 229 2 0
ODI 0 40 13 203 1204 478 40 0
CDI 0 29 1 89 659 1525 169 15
VCDI 0 10 3 68 530 8015 16633 31104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98459 19973 235 1179 1010 226 0 0
OW 32 1198 99 613 716 176 1 0
VODI 1 479 75 803 973 670 21 0
ODI 0 142 17 249 662 577 102 0
CDI 0 74 13 156 527 959 236 21
VCDI 0 69 12 182 678 7851 16484 31098

Date: 2017-11-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97453 20192 210 953 539 155 0 0
OW 59 1518 158 1131 441 107 0 0
VODI 12 241 46 880 1043 241 1 0
ODI 0 18 8 271 1084 537 7 4
CDI 0 5 0 93 881 1480 146 29
VCDI 0 0 1 22 654 9993 18915 27520
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97443 19228 207 1112 854 306 0 0
OW 60 1725 89 543 564 367 0 0
VODI 21 862 96 910 618 796 5 0
ODI 0 107 21 431 868 787 87 0
CDI 0 43 8 226 779 912 243 21
VCDI 0 9 2 128 959 9345 18734 27532


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