Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2017-10-12

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-16

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 47 2014 46 202 41 0 0 0
OW 0 133 14 171 191 7 0 0
VODI 0 11 9 180 283 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 422 148 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 122 974 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 5757 15162 10866
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 47 1608 20 128 26 0 0 0
OW 0 363 13 79 97 5 0 0
VODI 0 172 27 215 167 22 0 0
ODI 0 15 9 129 331 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 404 374 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 6486 15200 10866

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 258 9 44 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 64 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 91 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 141 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 127 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 249 943 1020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 258 9 49 3 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 69 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 27 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 138 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 89 1 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 364 964 1017

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 858 2547 41 217 106 0 0 0
OW 0 31 20 96 131 37 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 65 196 144 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 132 366 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 501 92 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 665 2564 1160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 858 2410 34 180 148 12 0 0
OW 0 135 18 92 91 93 0 0
VODI 0 33 9 92 91 147 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 119 171 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 116 246 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1044 2652 1160

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4682 940 3 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4682 882 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 3 8 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 5 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1508 2627 22 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 313 24 218 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 18 157 291 25 0 0
ODI 0 22 1 12 166 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 44 264 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 446 666 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1508 2160 15 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 471 16 103 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 428 32 240 214 7 0 0
ODI 0 25 2 49 191 70 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 2 130 152 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 649 666 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 5 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 7 129 140 26 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 136 661 473 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 360 1223 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 624 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 148 958 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 89 12 185 317 143 0 0
OW 0 0 1 98 301 293 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 353 591 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 125 510 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 111 495 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 462 1210 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2513 2451 27 105 13 0 0 0
OW 0 242 12 132 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 9 199 137 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 216 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 54 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2513 2033 20 74 6 0 0 0
OW 0 356 4 61 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 305 14 180 116 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 10 139 232 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 37 98 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10059 1230 9 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10059 1228 9 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9410 1704 14 73 29 0 0 0
OW 0 39 8 67 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 35 54 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 44 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 29 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 97 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9410 1601 10 58 27 0 0 0
OW 0 73 3 33 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 7 45 40 10 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 23 34 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 12 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 47 115 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12484 502 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12484 502 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3007 1735 30 308 116 0 0 0
OW 0 18 13 85 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 37 100 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 43 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 58 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 75 3 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3007 1684 29 353 161 0 0 0
OW 0 48 2 18 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 11 31 48 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 28 31 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 47 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 129 4 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6199 2353 11 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6199 2351 11 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19945 258 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19945 258 4 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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