Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-10-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16691 8141 79 132 0 0 0 0
OW 0 836 68 274 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 142 47 447 388 15 0 0
ODI 0 13 7 144 563 91 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 461 509 55 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 241 1839 9391 5241
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15681 8325 64 174 95 0 0 0
OW 0 778 69 465 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 35 445 552 45 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 552 248 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 344 637 82 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 159 1319 5976 9590
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15468 8405 118 354 14 0 0 0
OW 0 262 60 362 158 14 0 0
VODI 0 10 8 387 435 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 667 147 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 308 805 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 62 1381 6024 10319
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14393 8668 120 570 46 0 0 0
OW 0 279 44 298 266 24 0 0
VODI 0 37 20 320 519 84 3 0
ODI 0 0 2 78 377 205 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 339 614 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 84 2004 7549 8863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14393 8519 120 591 91 0 0 0
OW 0 378 42 221 199 3 0 0
VODI 0 86 23 355 482 65 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 101 403 192 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 371 586 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 85 2085 7579 8863

Date: 2017-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13885 8439 110 555 179 0 0 0
OW 0 373 52 305 293 20 0 0
VODI 0 125 15 248 502 121 13 0
ODI 0 36 7 47 418 226 28 0
CDI 0 11 1 30 227 484 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 139 2104 9049 7786
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13885 8334 110 599 282 0 0 0
OW 0 404 39 190 216 12 0 0
VODI 0 191 30 289 391 112 0 0
ODI 0 49 3 77 427 225 20 0
CDI 0 6 3 35 294 403 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 148 2203 9056 7786

Date: 2017-10-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12905 8646 138 783 266 0 0 0
OW 0 103 39 346 385 44 0 0
VODI 0 11 4 232 567 214 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 519 581 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 939 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 1899 10695 6317
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12905 8135 103 709 337 12 0 0
OW 0 426 31 240 238 98 0 0
VODI 0 186 40 292 289 183 0 0
ODI 0 13 7 120 466 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 437 458 6 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 77 2697 10805 6314

Date: 2017-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11353 9167 122 800 329 41 0 0
OW 0 124 20 386 285 76 0 0
VODI 0 27 16 188 449 289 19 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 285 418 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 158 721 330 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 1313 6788 11994
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11310 8835 91 708 259 64 0 0
OW 43 347 31 250 248 117 0 0
VODI 0 124 25 332 427 237 59 0
ODI 0 12 11 105 301 254 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 240 535 245 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 62 1651 6796 11999

Date: 2017-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11273 8167 126 625 478 76 0 0
OW 2 248 28 258 280 191 0 0
VODI 0 62 16 176 485 339 12 0
ODI 0 32 4 77 232 339 37 0
CDI 0 6 8 69 228 526 207 2
VCDI 0 0 0 22 186 1613 10453 8983
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11227 7987 113 561 539 232 0 0
OW 48 359 33 208 255 132 1 0
VODI 0 158 27 281 425 350 51 0
ODI 0 11 7 88 234 414 100 0
CDI 0 0 2 72 201 451 233 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 235 1505 10324 8985


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