Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-10-06:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 118682 19306 248 1098 341 0 0 0 OW 2 1614 121 730 352 2 0 0 VODI 0 346 80 989 912 70 0 0 ODI 0 13 7 211 1010 316 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 35 803 1325 126 9 VCDI 0 0 0 0 367 6623 21194 10116	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-08:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 116117 20210 239 1043 365 1 0 0 OW 0 1616 138 1146 504 10 0 0 VODI 0 158 58 955 1388 120 0 0 ODI 0 1 1 101 1112 495 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 6 600 1429 120 16 VCDI 0 0 0 0 179 5216 16342 17362	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-10:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 115626 19974 248 1015 129 0 0 0 OW 59 1192 152 1142 413 22 0 0 VODI 1 95 28 1233 1086 90 0 0 ODI 0 1 0 98 1647 326 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 3 677 1749 42 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 4596 16102 19219	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-12:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 113953 19530 235 1223 249 0 0 0 OW 40 1313 116 1132 760 56 0 0 VODI 1 190 51 949 1549 198 3 0 ODI 0 0 2 137 1325 605 12 0 CDI 0 0 0 10 905 1362 48 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 265 7226 15476 18127	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 113926 19430 235 1401 327 0 0 0 OW 58 1300 104 837 665 18 0 0 VODI 10 301 64 1001 1412 195 0 0 ODI 0 2 1 204 1452 585 7 0 CDI 0 0 0 8 919 1294 22 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 278 7355 15510 18127

Date: 2017-10-14:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 114159 17515 186 1063 438 57 0 0 OW 117 1523 99 930 888 179 0 0 VODI 39 491 59 833 1487 427 13 0 ODI 8 63 10 154 1372 694 28 0 CDI 0 13 1 46 826 1369 32 0 VCDI 0 0 0 9 395 8026 19414 14085	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 114228 17561 206 1198 679 102 0 0 OW 47 1288 63 761 726 108 0 0 VODI 37 650 77 840 1308 432 0 0 ODI 8 97 6 182 1357 624 20 0 CDI 3 9 3 52 927 1341 46 0 VCDI 0 0 0 2 409 8145 19421 14085

Date: 2017-10-16:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 112572 18652 222 1097 308 0 0 0 OW 0 843 98 964 702 70 0 0 VODI 0 169 39 860 1813 721 0 0 ODI 0 22 1 79 1524 2115 32 0 CDI 0 0 0 0 287 2631 401 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 7437 20296 13046	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 112572 17064 174 1136 688 155 0 0 OW 0 1495 60 564 637 391 0 0 VODI 0 1042 100 843 1056 792 10 0 ODI 0 82 26 387 1201 906 2 0 CDI 0 3 0 66 931 1481 21 3 VCDI 0 0 0 4 168 9249 20696 13043

Date: 2017-10-18:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 108851 19579 209 1183 425 41 0 0 OW 0 1070 60 928 583 82 0 0 VODI 0 292 66 887 1449 663 19 0 ODI 0 14 3 220 1299 1967 148 0 CDI 0 4 1 15 564 2824 668 5 VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 5725 17350 19795	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 108808 18866 155 1117 499 83 0 0 OW 43 1128 72 631 604 322 0 0 VODI 0 833 76 863 1349 1143 132 0 ODI 0 117 32 483 1077 1070 239 0 CDI 0 15 4 133 665 2004 271 0 VCDI 0 0 0 6 185 6680 17543 19800

Date: 2017-10-20:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 106192 19904 211 923 604 103 0 0 OW 7 971 87 829 564 224 0 0 VODI 0 421 50 657 1323 771 12 0 ODI 0 61 13 192 1015 1704 120 0 CDI 0 6 8 98 785 2586 1007 2 VCDI 0 0 0 22 464 6547 21524 17041	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 106110 19747 196 962 657 305 0 0 OW 89 1035 72 565 476 424 1 0 VODI 0 550 78 773 1158 1231 188 0 ODI 0 31 21 284 1171 1563 485 0 CDI 0 0 2 120 852 1816 717 0 VCDI 0 0 0 17 441 6596 21272 17043

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