Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2017-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97449 3448 33 171 25 0 0 0
OW 0 50 10 180 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 169 102 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 166 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 58 523 100 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 488 1525 1928 2526
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95769 5146 46 174 32 0 0 0
OW 0 75 15 130 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 4 132 150 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 179 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 529 91 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 484 1442 3045 1520
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96322 4725 49 195 22 0 0 0
OW 0 24 6 148 83 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 62 218 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 250 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 605 400 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1314 3704 940
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96379 4443 47 214 25 0 0 0
OW 0 43 9 131 82 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 88 160 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 169 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 208 244 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 1390 3875 1459
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96379 4459 49 243 35 0 0 0
OW 0 26 6 107 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 71 155 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 145 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 208 224 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 1413 3875 1459

Date: 2017-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96167 4241 43 328 127 0 0 0
OW 0 9 6 102 131 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 168 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 108 100 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 341 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 846 3061 3141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96167 4242 43 342 146 1 0 0
OW 0 8 6 87 118 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 42 150 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 110 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 67 302 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 894 3047 3141

Date: 2017-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95124 4927 47 269 75 0 0 0
OW 0 34 10 233 108 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 68 204 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 186 76 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 81 431 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 800 2934 3443
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95124 4936 53 438 203 6 0 0
OW 0 21 5 94 134 30 0 0
VODI 0 4 1 38 158 75 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 94 110 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 62 300 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 811 2936 3443

Date: 2017-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95749 4175 42 217 117 4 0 0
OW 0 43 11 139 121 17 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 75 218 51 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 141 110 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 65 420 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 649 3110 3582
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95749 4198 49 349 341 64 1 0
OW 0 20 5 63 121 78 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 31 120 127 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 66 142 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 368 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 472 3039 3582

Date: 2017-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95104 4840 39 216 87 0 0 0
OW 0 81 15 126 80 1 0 0
VODI 0 13 2 117 166 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 31 149 80 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 132 316 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1109 3665 2692
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95104 4913 51 381 296 72 0 0
OW 0 21 5 75 91 72 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 39 132 134 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 77 135 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 547 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 575 3544 2692


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