Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Asian sector

Bulletin date: 2017-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7767 7441 47 189 42 0 0 0
OW 14 311 34 232 140 31 0 0
VODI 0 21 14 218 356 107 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 302 366 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 914 293 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 447 4919 7744
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8283 6479 40 176 11 0 0 0
OW 22 498 27 245 102 0 0 0
VODI 0 100 20 221 323 57 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 75 314 238 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 265 704 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 1391 7183 5186
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7847 6720 53 186 3 0 0 0
OW 24 510 41 256 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 18 287 252 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 457 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 347 767 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 2828 7421 3754
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7101 6107 100 671 253 0 0 0
OW 2 590 39 301 154 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 33 410 290 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 354 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 384 526 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 2904 8453 2826
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7093 6289 109 749 268 0 0 0
OW 10 403 37 263 149 0 0 0
VODI 0 145 26 376 285 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 337 78 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 409 410 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 157 3024 8474 2826

Date: 2017-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4927 7535 108 535 145 0 0 0
OW 7 785 61 461 256 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 27 579 384 46 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 384 157 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 223 492 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 4171 6685 3888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4930 7776 121 663 230 0 0 0
OW 4 568 58 413 227 5 0 0
VODI 0 116 17 509 344 57 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 378 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 191 450 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 4195 6674 3888

Date: 2017-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4967 6742 101 532 88 0 0 0
OW 87 735 68 533 214 2 0 0
VODI 2 101 22 703 480 28 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 805 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 169 804 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 2221 7389 5144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5056 6561 117 801 402 61 0 0
OW 0 822 51 457 221 34 0 0
VODI 0 194 22 428 438 58 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 111 425 136 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 239 347 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 2521 7342 5144

Date: 2017-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4517 6828 74 366 11 0 0 0
OW 51 979 68 646 216 8 0 0
VODI 3 122 32 624 605 39 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 73 830 118 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 419 359 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 3923 6284 4795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4565 6665 97 643 310 78 0 0
OW 6 916 36 544 299 69 0 0
VODI 0 290 29 320 720 22 0 0
ODI 0 58 12 163 372 130 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 246 305 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 213 3843 6263 4795

Date: 2017-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4572 5233 61 380 297 20 0 0
OW 1 989 41 601 487 141 0 0
VODI 0 253 32 496 845 204 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 50 930 243 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 436 472 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 259 3977 5040 6003
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4573 5717 65 588 646 381 6 0
OW 0 585 46 476 498 177 0 0
VODI 0 179 22 375 984 159 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 92 529 172 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 345 315 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 252 3853 5029 6003


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