Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2017-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17649 8616 110 271 12 0 0 0
OW 0 288 49 389 140 5 0 0
VODI 0 32 16 305 411 119 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 495 156 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 370 932 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 1339 7079 6854
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18268 7368 98 303 56 0 0 0
OW 0 455 56 327 214 3 0 0
VODI 0 56 17 257 405 145 4 0
ODI 0 3 1 93 358 223 70 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 310 704 163 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 128 844 5160 9725
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16383 8925 99 258 10 0 0 0
OW 0 341 58 417 120 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 15 316 439 6 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 60 592 122 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 367 934 55 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 2050 10359 3854
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17408 7688 49 103 0 0 0 0
OW 0 757 64 257 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 186 49 463 306 0 0 0
ODI 0 58 11 170 532 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 98 480 464 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 31 279 1825 10046 4426
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17408 7826 58 133 0 0 0 0
OW 0 633 58 249 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 178 48 445 327 0 0 0
ODI 0 37 9 159 514 47 0 0
CDI 0 15 3 76 474 422 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 275 1863 10063 4426

Date: 2017-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16891 7529 49 175 53 0 0 0
OW 0 882 72 343 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 116 46 493 426 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 150 556 130 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 42 345 656 61 22
VCDI 0 0 0 6 183 1529 6648 8439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16891 7686 63 231 37 0 0 0
OW 0 651 53 298 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 190 51 465 406 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 136 511 135 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 353 531 38 18
VCDI 0 0 0 20 214 1636 6674 8443

Date: 2017-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15584 8561 99 246 14 0 0 0
OW 0 277 73 417 133 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 9 460 389 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 884 93 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 944 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 71 1009 6005 10281
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15584 8128 106 416 96 0 0 0
OW 0 521 37 307 232 2 0 0
VODI 0 191 38 384 533 84 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 472 302 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 198 597 166 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 196 1063 5861 10273

Date: 2017-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15522 7968 116 486 25 0 0 0
OW 0 272 50 325 186 16 0 0
VODI 0 16 19 372 475 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 497 192 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 321 651 17 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 1646 7269 9231
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15522 7191 78 331 44 0 0 0
OW 0 638 51 331 178 36 0 0
VODI 0 427 53 434 461 110 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 146 494 344 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 278 696 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 124 1367 7244 9231

Date: 2017-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14334 8467 113 549 48 0 0 0
OW 0 414 44 264 243 14 0 0
VODI 0 118 26 311 469 91 3 0
ODI 0 34 5 82 370 161 11 0
CDI 0 7 1 40 297 560 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 178 2287 7807 8497
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14333 7566 89 414 87 0 0 0
OW 1 770 39 217 129 30 4 0
VODI 0 556 41 295 462 144 12 0
ODI 0 116 15 241 288 271 13 0
CDI 0 32 5 79 359 529 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 280 2139 7776 8497


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