Description of algorithm Full domain   Ice concntr, edge pos   Contingency tables American sector European sector Asian sector GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2017-10-05

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2017-09-29:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 122865 19505 190 631 79 0 0 0 OW 14 649 93 801 327 36 0 0 VODI 0 53 31 692 869 228 3 0 ODI 0 0 0 166 963 544 52 0 CDI 0 0 0 74 971 1946 408 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 497 3311 13926 17124	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-01:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 122320 18993 184 653 99 0 0 0 OW 22 1028 98 702 382 3 0 0 VODI 0 160 41 610 878 209 4 0 ODI 0 4 4 203 851 479 76 0 CDI 0 0 0 56 1104 1499 257 5 VCDI 0 0 0 0 628 3677 15388 16431	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-03:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 120552 20370 201 639 35 0 0 0 OW 24 875 105 821 245 0 0 0 VODI 0 90 33 665 909 7 0 0 ODI 0 1 2 105 1299 191 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 2 1319 2101 115 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 6192 21484 8548	...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2017-10-05:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 120888 18238 196 988 278 0 0 0 OW 2 1390 112 689 246 0 0 0 VODI 0 326 84 961 756 28 0 0 ODI 0 58 11 257 1055 161 0 0 CDI 0 0 3 98 1072 1234 158 0 VCDI 0 0 0 31 524 6119 22374 8711	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 120880 18574 216 1125 303 0 0 0 OW 10 1062 101 619 247 0 0 0 VODI 0 324 77 892 767 28 0 0 ODI 0 37 9 242 996 158 0 0 CDI 0 15 3 86 1091 1056 120 0 VCDI 0 0 0 60 527 6300 22412 8711

Date: 2017-10-07:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 117985 19305 200 1038 325 0 0 0 OW 7 1676 139 906 404 13 0 0 VODI 0 256 73 1114 978 102 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 172 1048 387 3 0 CDI 0 0 0 42 625 1489 110 22 VCDI 0 0 0 6 215 6546 16394 15468	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 117988 19704 227 1236 413 1 0 0 OW 4 1227 117 798 404 18 0 0 VODI 0 306 68 1016 900 122 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 149 999 388 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 59 611 1283 112 18 VCDI 0 0 0 20 268 6725 16395 15472

Date: 2017-10-09:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 115675 20230 247 1047 177 0 0 0 OW 87 1046 151 1183 455 5 0 0 VODI 2 103 33 1231 1073 52 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 65 1875 271 0 0 CDI 0 0 0 0 486 2179 77 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 4030 16328 18868	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 115764 19625 276 1655 701 67 0 0 OW 0 1364 93 858 587 66 0 0 VODI 0 389 61 850 1129 217 0 0 ODI 0 1 1 162 991 548 27 0 CDI 0 0 0 1 499 1244 239 8 VCDI 0 0 0 0 231 4395 16139 18860

Date: 2017-10-11:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 115788 18971 232 1069 153 4 0 0 OW 51 1294 129 1110 523 41 0 0 VODI 3 138 52 1071 1298 138 0 0 ODI 0 0 0 155 1468 420 6 0 CDI 0 0 0 7 805 1430 49 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 154 6218 16663 17608	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 115836 18054 224 1323 695 142 1 0 OW 6 1574 92 938 598 183 1 0 VODI 0 717 82 785 1301 259 9 0 ODI 0 58 15 312 932 616 16 0 CDI 0 0 0 46 538 1369 145 0 VCDI 0 0 0 8 337 5682 16546 17608

Date: 2017-10-13:

Best estimate	Forecast
observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 114010 18540 213 1145 432 20 0 0 OW 1 1484 100 991 810 156 0 0 VODI 0 384 60 924 1480 324 3 0 ODI 0 42 7 163 1449 484 16 0 CDI 0 7 1 49 865 1348 22 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 441 7373 16512 17192	observations Ice free Ice free near MIZ OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI near MIZ VCDI m o d e l Ice free 114010 18196 205 1383 1029 453 6 0 OW 1 1376 90 768 718 279 4 0 VODI 0 735 64 709 1578 437 12 0 ODI 0 118 17 333 894 578 13 0 CDI 0 32 5 79 726 1391 169 0 VCDI 0 0 0 0 532 6567 16349 17192

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